November 1992, Page 62

Election Watch

U.S. Vote Defined Chasm Between Arab Americans, Israeli Americans

By Richard H. Curtiss

"Rarely does one see groups of Americans living overseas divide themselves into almost monolithic voting blocs as they have here in this election. While almost all the Jews seem to be behind Mr. Clinton, the Arabs have aligned themselves overwhelmingly with Mr. Bush."
-Jerusalem correspondent Clyde Haberman, The New York Times, Oct. 14, 1992

U.S. consular officials estimate that there are between 100,000 and 130,000 American citizens living in Israel/Palestine. If one couldn't distinguish the Jews from the Palestinians by their names, one could by their votes in the 1992 presidential election. Normally about 25,000 Israeli-American dual nationals vote in U.S. elections, and this year virtually all of them voted for the Clinton-Gore ticket.

"I would vote for almost anybody but Bush," Eve Harow, a former Los Angeles resident who now lives in Efrat, a Jewish West Bank settlement near Bethlehem, told New York Timescorrespondent Clyde Haberman. "It's not just Bush-it's Baker. I think Baker's got a lot of problems with us." Some of her Orthodox Jewish neighbors in Efrat, one-third of whom are Americans, wore knitted yarmulka skullcaps embroidered "For Bill Clinton."

Only 11 miles to the northeast, Kamal Daoud, a hotel owner in East Jerusalem, supported George Bush. Like most Palestinian Americans living in Israeli-occupied territories, he was unhappy with the U.S. president during the Gulf war, but deeply distrusts Gov. William Clinton. "Clinton is 100 percent for Israel," he told Haberman. "No matter what they do, he's going to say O.K. because he wants their votes."

From Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the English-language Saudi Gazette reported on the results of a straw poll among guests who watched the first presidential debate at the American Embassy in Riyadh. Bush garnered twice as many votes from the mixed Saudi and American audience as did Clinton, with H. Ross Perot running third.

Staff Writer Peter Ford reported from Abu Dhabi in the Oct. 20 Christian Science Monitor that sentiment in the Arab states of the Gulf was equally pro-Bush. "Everyone who thinks about the U.S. election is hoping that Bush will come back," political science professor Jamal Al-Suwaidi of the University of the United Arab Emirates told Ford. "If Bush wins there will be stability in U.S. foreign policy. With Clinton, there is bound to be at least a year of instability, and the last thing we need in this region is instability."

In Kuwait, Ford reported, where graffiti recently removed from the U.S. Embassy walls said, "Thanks for Bush and American people," Kuwaitis paused during their own October election campaign to tell Americans they supported Bush.

"Everyone in these parts is hoping that Bush wins, because if he does they will be dealing with an outward-looking policy, and they expect Clinton to look inward," Gulf News editor Aroun Solomon told Ford. "That would give Iran even greater clout in the region."

Most Arabs believed, however, that regardless of who won the U.S. election there would be continuity in U.S. policy in the Gulf, if not in the Israel-Palestine problem. If elected, Clinton would be obliged to pay close attention to the Gulf, Dr. Abdullah Abdel Khaleq of UAE University told Ford. "Even if he is not interested in any other part of the world," Khaleq said, "this is an area where the United States will have strategic interests for at least the next 20 years."

Clinton Gets U.S. Jewish Vote

In the run-up to election, several U.S. Jewish weekly newspapers featured stories of Jewish Republicans who crossed over to the Clinton-Gore camp. Richard Schifter, assistant secretary of state for human rights during the second Reagan administration, described his own defection in the column he writes for Jewish weekly newspapers all over the United States.

The crossovers mirrored pre-election predictions in the same newspapers that the Clinton-Gore ticket would get an even higher percentage than usual of the normally pro-Democratic "Jewish vote."

Political historian Allan J. Lichtman predicted early in October that up to 80 percent of Jews would vote for the Democratic ticket. Former American Israel Public Affairs Committee legislative director Douglas M. Bloomfield made the same prediction in his weekly column in the Oct. 15 Washington Jewish Week: "Political professionals in both parties expect Gov. Bill Clinton to get 80 percent or more of the Jewish vote, with Bush and Ross Perot dividing the remaining 20 percent," Bloomfield wrote. "Bush's share could be in the 10-15 percent range, according to veteran Jewish Republican activist Larry Goldberg of Newport, RI. Symbolic of the turnaround is Goldberg's recent endorsement of Clinton after having served in four Republican administrations."

Israel Supports Start Scramble For Clinton Administration Jobs

With pre-election polls favoring Governor William Clinton, pro-Israel politicians and journalists didn't wait for election day to begin suggesting appointments to Clinton administration positions of particular interest to Israel and its U.S. lobby.

"If Governor Clinton is elected, the appointment of [Manhattan District Attorney Robert] Morgenthau as attorney general would mean immediate change-a cleansing break with the tradition of appointing a pliable subordinate or crony to do the most important law enforcement job in the country," wrote syndicated columnist A.M. Rosenthal in the Oct. 23 New York Times."If Mr. Clinton will not take that deep a breath of fresh air, here's a suggestion for special Iraqgate prosecuter: Robert Morgenthau. Mr. Morgenthau, in that case, would want to keep the elected job of district attorney. But he and his top aides could be empowered as special federal attorneys."

Executive Director Thomas Dine of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee was reported by the New York Jewish weekly Forward to be promoting the candidacy of former Democratic vice president and 1984 presidential candidate Walter Mondale as secretary of state. Forwardsaid Mondale's "pro-Israel credentials outshine those of others on the Clinton list, like Rep. Lee Hamilton and former Carter State Department official Warren Christopher."

Rep. Les Aspin (D-WI) who, according to Forward, "is widely rumored to be at the top of Governor Clinton's short list for secretary of defense," was featured speaker at a September banquet of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, where he received the hard-line pro-Israel institute's Henry Jackson Award for distinguished service. Last year's recipient was Bush administration Secretary of Defense Richard Cheney.