Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, December 2007, pages 31-32

The Subcontinent

Karachi Bomb Blasts Mar Bhutto’s Homecoming

By M.M. Ali

THE HELICOPTER ESCORTING the one in which President Pervez Musharraf was traveling crashed in the hills of the Pakistan-administered Azad Kashmir area on Oct. 8, 2007. While Islamabad described it as “a mechanical failure of the craft,” some media pundits saw it as “another failed attempt on the life of the president.” Many recalled the 1979 air crash that killed Zia ul-Haq and paved the way for Benazir Bhutto to succeed him as prime minister. Indeed, there were ominous similarities between the two incidents, including Washington’s current lack of confidence in Musharraf’s leadership and the current administration’s backing of Benazir Bhutto.

Disregarding Musharaff’s advice to delay her return to Pakistan, on Oct. 18 a defiant Benazir Bhutto flew to Karachi from Dubai, where she fled eight years ago in order to avoid trial on charges of corruption. Her Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) staged a huge public welcome, which included a motorcade procession that took more than seven hours to travel fewer than seven miles.

Bhutto’s return was marred, however, by two bomb blasts that killed more than a hundred people and injured more than 400. Bhutto herself escaped injury—but it was a close call. The following day, in a press conference from her Karachi home, she vowed to remain in the country to fight “extremist forces” that, she charged, are trying to “destroy the country.” In a letter to Musharraf Bhutto reportedly has named three people whom she suspects of having planned the attack on her. Speculation is that they are linked to government intelligence agencies.

During her September visit to Washington, Bhutto made some provocative statements—among them that she would let Americans talk to Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, the man who reportedly sold nuclear materials to Libya and North Korea and whom Musharraf currently is holding under house arrest, and that she would allow U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan to cross into Pakistan to catch Osama bin Laden if they had any evidence that he was there. These statements did not go over well with Pakistanis, especially not with right-wing religious groups.

Her huge public reception on the streets of Karachi showed that she was still popular, however—which could have made many in the present government nervous about their own future. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has banned large public meetings in the weeks leading up to January’s parliamentary elections.

Determined not to appear intimidated by the violence which greeted her return, on Oct. 22 Bhutto visited the Mausoleum of Mohammad Ali Jinnah, the nation’s founder, where she addressed a small gathering, promising again to work for restoration of democracy. Her image is all-important now.

Paying the Price for Poor Advice

A couple of major political missteps appear to have caused serious setbacks for President Musharraf in this election year. Last March’s failed attempt to oust the chief justice of the Supreme Court, for example, resulted in the emergence of heated public opposition from the country’s lawyers and the strengthening of the judiciary, which is now challenging Musharraf’s presidential authority; and his decision to storm the women’s madrassa (school) and adjacent Red Mosque in Islamabad, killing over a hundred residents, including one of the  mosque’s two religious leaders, has further angered pro-Taliban and al-Qaeda supporters in Pakistan. The government demolished the madrassa, but the mosque, where thousands congregate every Friday, had to be reopened. The government has not heard the last of these controversies.

With the exception of Bhutto’s PPP, all the country’s opposition parties resigned from the various state legislative assemblies when, on Oct. 6, Musharraf was re-elected president by his lame-duck party members. The Supreme Court allowed the election to take place, but ordered the results withheld until Oct. 17, when it said it would begin hearing the petitions challenging the election. A week later, it was still doing so.

By packing Nawaz Sharif off to Saudi Arabia when the former prime minister tried to return to Pakistan from his London exile, Musharraf did succeed in removing, for the moment at least, one powerful political rival. Sharif may yet return before the January elections, however, and damage the prospects of Musharraf’s Muslim League (Q) party, particularly in Punjab, the country’s largest province. Viewed by many as a victim of Musharraf’s maneuvering, Sharif has gained a great deal of sympathy as a result.

At Washington’s behest, Musharraf has been in negotiations with Benazir Bhutto to form some kind of an alliance. The president and former prime minister do not trust each other, however. Bhutto has insisted that she will not accept a president in military uniform and vowed not to return to Pakistan until all charges against her were dropped.

Although Musharraf passed an ordinance absolving Bhutto, she, suspecting his motives, ignored his request that she delay her return by a month. Meanwhile, Musharraf has named Gen. Pervez Kiyani  to be his successor as army chief. The crises may have been resolved to some degree by the end of October—or all the deals on the table may collapse instead, and Musharraf or Kiyani (if the president has returned to civilian life) may declare a state of emergency, if not outright martial law, and assume all authority.

Washington could not care less about Pakistan’s domestic turmoil, however. The return of democracy and fair elections in South Asia are secondary to its primary concern, which is to halt the spread of al-Qaeda in the nuclear armed Muslim state. With a nuclear India next door, Pakistan’s army certainly is not willing to relinquish its own nuclear capability. While Bhutto has promised to play the American game if she becomes prime minister, the violent incident that almost killed her put a damper on her plans for an effortless return to power.

Choppy Waters for India-U.S. Nuclear Agreement

What began in September as a disagreement between India’s ruling Congress party and the opposition left-wing Communist party and right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on the nuclear energy agreement signed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and U.S. President George W. Bush has evolved into a significant threat to the Congress government. Singh reportedly called Bush and asked him to slow down for a moment on its implementation. Despite its frustration, the White House understands New Delhi’s difficult position. Bush cannot afford to rock Singh’s political boat and destroy the prospect of saving an agreement that allegedly is good for both countries, and certainly will have a far-reaching impact on world affairs.

Myth and Reality in India

India’s population of more than a billion people lives in a near-continent of regions and sub-regions, speaks a multiplicity of languages, and grants its allegiances to local entities. The northern part of the country is the Hindi-speaking area where the (light-skinned) Aryan race lives and worships the deity Ram. In the south live the (darker-skinned) Dravidians, who worship their own gods.

Tamil Nadu, the largest southern state, has decided to open a canal between it and Sri Lanka in order to connect the Arabian Sea with the Bay of Bengal, thereby reducing shipping time and saving billions of dollars. According to the project planning report, Ramayan’s assertion in Hindu scripture that monkeys had built a bridge to help Ram cross over to Sri Lanka and retrieve his wife Sita, who had been abducted and taken there by the eight-headed Ravan, was mere fiction and lacked real evidence.

The BJP and Vishna Hindu Parishad (VHP) parties immediately jumped on the issue. Its potentially far-reaching consequences, after all, include resurrecting the question of their 1992 destruction of Ayodhya’s Babri Masjid, the historic mosque located in upper India. Today, India remains seriously divided along religious lines. So far New Delhi has managed to remain mostly above the fray. India’s minister for religious affairs has offered to resign, however, and Tamil Nadu’s chief minister seems unwilling to abandon the canal project.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a specialist on South Asia based in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.

< Prev		Next >