Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, March 2007, page 39

The Subcontinent

Bush Signs U.S.-India Nuclear Agreement

By M.M. Ali

On Dec. 18, 2006, President George W. Bush signed legislation passed by Congress allowing India to receive U.S. nuclear technology, materials and other related assistance to expand its civilian nuclear program. The president’s hope is that, by boosting India’s much-needed energy resources and thereby bolstering its economy, the U.S. can help build India into a regional superpower to counterbalance China.

Before the agreement can take effect, three requirements must be met: 1) India must reach an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for opening up its nuclear facilities for inspections; 2) Washington and Delhi need to work out the technical aspects of their nuclear trade agreement; and 3) the agreement must be accepted by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), a self-described “group of nuclear supplier countries which seeks to contribute to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons through the implementation of guidelines for nuclear exports and nuclear-related exports.”

While these may not be insurmountable steps, it may still take a year or so for wheels to start rolling.

Critics in both countries point out that, of its 22 nuclear sites, India has identified 14 as being for civilian use, with the rest dedicated to its military weapons program. Once its civilian component receives U.S. assistance, India’s military program will be free to continue developing with no restraint. It is estimated that India will be able to produce enough fuel to make 40 to 50 weapons per year.

Others worry that by making an exception of India—which has never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)—the deal may encourage other countries to expand their civilian programs, and also increase their nuclear weapons ambitions. Whether the deal will kill three decades of efforts to safeguard the NPT, only time will tell.

Some Indian scientists fear that the agreement will allow the U.S. to snoop into, and frustrate, India’s nuclear weapons program. In the opinion of Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, however, “This is a great event for the Indians.” Quoted in the Dec. 19 Press Trust of India, Burns added that the agreement corrects the missed opportunities of the past 30 years and straightens out the relationship between the two democracies. Burns was due to visit India to work out the modalities of the agreement.

India’s Congress Government Woos Minorities

A year ago, on March 9, 2006, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Congress Party government appointed a committee headed by former Chief Justice of the Delhi High Court Rajinder Sachar to report on the status of India’s minorities, with special reference to Muslims. On Nov. 30, the Committee submitted its report to parliament. Its findings, which were leaked to the press before the report was officially released, portray a bleak political and economic picture for the country’s minorities—including its Hindu “untouchables,” or Dalits.

The backwardness of the Hindu minorities is attributed to the centuries-old caste system, which even today, despite anti-discrimination laws, remains intact. As a result, thousands of Dalits (also known as “untouchables”) have converted to Christianity or Buddhism. To counter this trend, states with Hindu extremist governments have passed laws banning religious conversions.

Many of the problems facing India’s Muslim minority—to whom the doors of progress largely are closed—increased during the 1990s, when the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was in power. BJP components like the extremist Janata Dal, Bajrang Dal, Rashtriya Swaem Sevak Sangh and Shiv Sena feverishly worked toward establishing Hindutva (a Hindu State). Today Muslims constitute about 14 percent of India’s population, with other minorities accounting for between 30 and 35 percent. At election time, however, these minorities become a significant force. Muslims are called the “vote bank,” which every major political party tries to dip into when it’s time to cash in.

Detailing the condition of Indian Muslims, the Sachar Committee found that fewer than 4 percent graduate from schools and, in the absence of public schools, another 4 percent end up in madrassas (religious schools). Countering claims by Hindu extremists, India’s Muslim population has been on the decline—except within the country’s prison system. The report urged that a commission for the protection of minorities be appointed to implement its recommendations, some of which Prime Minster Singh has promised to put into effect. Not surprisingly, the BJP already has begun a counter campaign.

Pakistani-Afghan Relations

The border between Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and southern Afghanistan is a very difficult and mountainous terrain. The area has seen nothing but war for the last 25 years, and the infrastructure is in ruins. It is here that hundreds of Afghans—civilians as well as Taliban and al-Qaeda forces—have been crossing the border at will, to the detriment of both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Despite accusing Islamabad of not doing enough to stem the resurgence of al-Qaeda and the Taliban, Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai—whose administration is virtually nonexistent outside the capital of Kabul—opposed a September 2006 agreement between the government of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and NWFP tribal chiefs which called for a pull-out of federal troops from N. Waziristan in return for peace and the blocking of entry into Pakistan. Karzai has charged that attacks on Afghanistan’s southern border have increased since then.

In effect calling his neighbor’s bluff, Musharraf has gone a step further, announcing plans to build a wall—filled in with an electric fence and landmines as terrain dictates—along suspected crossing points inside Pakistani territory. Once again Karzai has cried foul, saying that such a move would divide families living on either side of the border, who currently are among those crossing the porous boundary. Even the U.N. representative in the area did not like the idea. Currently all parties are waiting for winter to end to test out policies that might hold.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a specialist on South Asia based in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.

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