Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, January/February 2007, pages 30, 32

The Subcontinent

As Senate Approves India Nuclear Deal, Chinese President Visits India, Pakistan

By M.M. Ali

ON HIS OFFICIAL visit to India Nov. 20 to 23, Chinese President Hu Jintao was received with measured warmth. His next stop was a two-day visit to Pakistan, where he was greeted with visible exuberance. Hu signed agreements with both countries for improving economic and educational ties. A potential complication to the Chinese leader’s visit to Delhi was the fact that on Nov. 14, mere days before his arrival, China’s ambassador to India claimed that Arunachal Pradesh, an area on the Indian side of Himalayas that includes Sikkim, belonged to China—a claim immediately refuted by the Indian foreign office. However, Hu’s visit passed without any public reference to the subject.

In Pakistan Hu signed a Five Year (2007-2011) trade and economic cooperation agreement and reaffirmed China and Pakistan’s “strategic relationship.” The two countries having already signed a defense cooperation agreement, press speculations were rife as to whether Beijing might be considering offering Islamabad civilian nuclear assistance as well, similar to that which Washington has offered New Delhi.

Hu and Musharraf also agreed that China would establish plants in Pakistan to manufacture consumer goods for onward export. Currently, Pakistani markets are flooded with Chinese products, while Pakistan can export to China only cotton, cotton yarn, textiles and fresh produce. Beijing has been assisting in developing the Gawadar sea port on the Baluchistan border, which will facilitate exports to the Middle East. China and Pakistan also are expanding the “Silk Route” roadway across the Himalayas.

U.S. Senate Passes India Nuclear Deal

By a vote of 85-12 the U.S. Senate passed on Nov. 16 the Bush administration’s proposal to provide India with U.S. nuclear materials and technology to help its civilian energy needs. The House having passed a similar bill in July, the two versions must now be reconciled in a joint conference committee before being formally adopted by Congress and sent to the president for his signature. These steps are a mere formality, however, and it is expected that the measure will become law in less than a year. Those U.S. policymakers who support it feel that it would provide a much needed source of energy to India’s growing economy. Skeptics, however, fear that Delhi may take advantage of U.S. technology by boosting its nuclear weapons program at the same time.

The overriding consideration, however, is that the arrangement will help the United States assist India to become a strategic regional counterweight to China. But there is no question that the measure will undermine efforts of anti-nuclear proliferation nations. Not only has India declined to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), after all, but it has developed nuclear weapons in secret. In a world riddled with dangerous flashpoints, the U.S.-India treaty might encourage other countries to seek nuclear assistance as well.

Musharraf Continues to Grapple With Domestic Issues

An Oct. 27 missile attack that wiped out a madrassa (religious school) in Bajaur Agency inside Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province (NWFP) bordering Afghanistan turned into a major controversy for the government of Pervez Musharraf. Local right-wing religious parties alleged that a U.S. drone had launched the missile attack. However, Islamabad took responsibility for the attack, saying its helicopters had launched the action against Taliban foreign nationals allegedly hiding in the madrassa. Jamiat-e-Ulemae Pakistan and the Jamaat-e-Islami embarked on a nationwide campaign protesting the attack, and a minister of the NWFP state government resigned, as did their members of the National Assembly. All roads in and out of the Bajaur Agency were closed.

Pakistan National Assembly Passes Women’s Rights Bill

For awhile now, the Hudood Ordinance (shariah law laying out the parameters within which women must operate) has been a matter of public debate in Pakistan. While religious groups do not want to change or amend the Hudood laws, liberal elements, including the supporters of Musharraf’s “enlightened moderation” circles, have advocated for change. A National Assembly committee finally adopted recommendations accommodating some of the views of the religious groups, but recommended that certain provisions of the law to be moved from shariah law to the regular civil penal code. One provision of the Hudood Ordinance, for example, requires at least four respectable male eye-witnesses to verify rape, with the burden of proof on the accuser (invariably a woman). Failure to prove the charge would result in the accuser being jailed. Today thousands of Pakistani women are languishing in prison as a result. Musharraf is expected to sign the bill—which former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s People’s Party also has backed—but right-wing political unrest is likely to continue.

In contrast, the NWFP’s Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) government, a conglomerate of religious parties, passed the Hibba bill, urging the state government to institute shariah law. As of early December, however, the governor, a Musharraf appointee, had declined to sign the legislation.

Continued Turmoil in Afghanistan

The situation in Afghanistan remains unstable, with all reports indicating that the resurgent Taliban continue to challenge the authority of the Karzai government, particularly in southern Afghanistan. The 30,000 strong NATO-led contingent has been fighting only where it already has a stronghold, meaning that not all troops under NATO command are deployed in areas where the real trouble exists. French and German forces, for example, are stationed only in and around Kabul.

According to reports, the Taliban have not been this strong since their defeat in 2001. Loyalties appear to be split, with local Afghan tribal chiefs who own agricultural land siding with the Taliban whenever it suits their interest. A U.N.-World Bank report cited in the Nov. 29 Washington Post found that “Opium cultivation in Afghanistan rose by 59 percent this year to 6,100 tons—enough to make 610 tons of heroin, nearly a third more than is consumed by the world’s drug users.” It is the owners of this land who literally are calling the shots in Afghanistan.

Perhaps the Taliban hope that the U.S.- and NATO-led coalitions will not be able to sustain more losses much longer and thus abandon the fight and leave the area. Should that happen, it will be a disaster for the entire region.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a specialist on South Asia based in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.

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