Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, December 2004, page 37

The Subcontinent

India-Pakistan Relations, and Elections in Afghanistan

By M.M. Ali

On the face of it, relations between India and Pakistan appear to be on the mend, although nothing substantive has yet emerged. It is becoming more evident each day that India is finally trying to break out of its long preoccupation with Pakistan and seeking to find its place on the larger global stage. Delhi still finds itself tangled, however, in the problems it created for itself in its immediate neighborhood—primarily its dispute with Islamabad over Kashmir. India’s past decade was dominated by right-wing Hindu religious parties under the banner of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This not only widened internal as well as external divisions, but the nuclearization of India and Pakistan during the same period made the subcontinent a very unsafe place.

Things have changed, however. The Indian National Congress now in power under the leadership of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh appears to be working on consolidating its political position at home, maintaining the dialogue of peace with Pakistan, and simultaneously working toward gaining a place among the world’s major powers. New Delhi sees the Western powers and Russia as willing to offer it a helping hand as a way to counter China’s quantum leaps in economic development and technological advancement. Indeed, the first evidence of such assistance was British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s public offer of support for India’s desire to be named a permanent member of an expanded U.N. Security Council when the matter comes up for discussion next year.

London’s backing does not represent a home run for India, however, since Washington is backing Japan, and Germany and Brazil also are in the running. The issue will be decided by a majority vote in the U.N. General Assembly and also by a unanimous vote of the current U.N. Security Council. Internationally several options are being discussed, including how to give representation to the African continent.

Domestically, the Congress party is trying to consolidate its regained national political position. Congress president Sonia Gandhi has emerged as a real leader after offering the prime minister’s job, which was hers for the asking to Manmohan Singh. She now has been credited for Congress’ electoral victory in the state of Maharashtra (whose capital is Mumbai, formerly Bombay), the seat of right-wing Hindu extremists like Shiv Sena. The election victory is not hers alone, however.

Congress shares it with the Nationalist Congress Party, a breakaway faction of Congress headed by Sharad Power, now a minister in the central coalition government. Nonetheless, the two groups agreed to work together to defeat the BJP. (Incidentally, BJP has now elected as its new chief the hard-liner L.K. Advani—who, it will be recalled, as home minister under former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, was charged with fueling the fire that destroyed the Babri Masjid in 1992.)

Pakistan Affairs

In his own way, President Pervez Musharraf did not return empty-handed from his visit to the United States. George W. Bush assured the Pakistani leader that the promised $3 billion in U.S. military and economic aid already was in the pipeline, and that he appreciated Islamabad’s support and participation in the fight against international terrorism. A similar endorsement came from Secretary of State Colin Powell. Ignoring the political dissensions within Pakistan, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said of Musharraf: “He is the right man for the right job at the right time and in the right place.”

Upon his return from Washington in early October, Musharaff’s first order of business was to overhaul Pakistan’s army. He retired several generals, transferred others, and, in addition to appointing new corps commanders, named one, Pervez Kiani, who holds the rank of lieutenant general, as director general of the sensitive Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). Musharraf also appointed Gen. Jehangir Karamat, the former army commander-in-chief, as Pakistan’s new ambassador to Washington.

Musharraf left the next order of business to his new prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, and members of his Muslim League, who enjoy a clear majority in the National Assembly. Overriding a provision of the 17th Amendment to the Constitution, Muslim Leaguers passed a bill in the National Assembly asking Musharraf to hold the offices of the president as well as commander-in-chief even after December 2004. The matter has created a furor among opposition ranks, who threaten to stage public demonstrations against the move. Musharraf claims he has not yet made up his mind.

Meanwhile the country is further engulfed in turmoil. In recent weeks, bomb blasts in crowded mosques in cities like Karachi, Sialkot, Multan, Lahore and Islamabad have killed scores of people. These incidents have contributed to an atmosphere of Shi’i-Sunni violence.

These acts, moreover, came on the heels of military action against reported Taliban/al-Qaeda hideouts in the tribal Waziristan area bordering southern Afghanistan. Although the Pakistani army claims to have captured or killed several key al-Qaeda leaders, the trouble is far from over. The tribal belt on the northern borders literally functions as a state within a state.

Afghan Elections

Under the shadow of Taliban and al-Qaeda threats to disrupt them, Afghanistan held its first-ever elections on Oct. 9. Thousands lined up to vote at 4,900 polling centers and 22,000 polling stations across the country. Afghan refugees still living in Iran and Pakistan also were provided an opportunity to vote at 2,800 polling centers. A glitch in the application of indelible ink to voters’ thumbs threatened to disrupt the polls, and opposition leaders threatened to boycott the elections, charging they were rigged by the ruling group headed by President Hamid Karzai. The situation was saved, however, by the intervention of U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad. A commission was appointed to look into the charge of vote fraud, and votes are to be counted by the end of October. Indications are that Karzai will win.

Considering the response of the citizenry, however, it is clear that, regardless of the implications for others, Afghans are tired of war and repression and desperately looking for some breathing space. It must be remembered, however, that U.S. and NATO forces are needed to keep peace and that the U.N. also must play its assigned role in reconstruction and development. Complacency could cause Afghanistan to revert to the state of civil war that followed the defeat of the Soviet Union some 20 years ago. The peace that prevails today is much too fragile to take for granted.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a specialist on South Asia based in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.