Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, June 2004, page 42

The Subcontinent

India-Pakistan Ties Continue to Grow, but Afghanistan Remains Unsettled

By M.M. Ali

With the four phases of Indian elections scheduled for completion by mid-May, and ties with Pakistan continuing to show signs of further growth, it still remains difficult to determine which government policies are long-term and which were designed to win the elections. Prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s ruling Baharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suddenly developed a warmth toward the country’s Muslims and some affection for its Christians as well—and even included some minority candidates on its tickets in the current elections. This is quite a sea change for a party founded on the basis of forming a Hindu state (Hinduthava).

Political analysts are very suspicious of the BJP stance, and have good reason to attribute it to short-term domestic politics. India, of course, is not the only country to witness such policy adjustments at election time. Nevertheless, these tactics may yield some dividends, and BJP can expect to gain more seats in the Lokh Sabha, the lower house of parliament. Another clever tactic would be to keep the BJP’s non-Hindu coalition partners in the government, even if BJP wins a clear majority in the parliament. One can therefore expect ministers like George Fernandez to remain in the central cabinet even if the hard-liners increase their parliamentary numbers.

Unfortunately, the Indian National Congress, led by Sonya Gandhi, the Italian-born widow of assassinated Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, was not able to stem the BJP tide that has been rising for the past decade. Campaigning with her children, Priyanka and Rahul Gandhi, did not produce major results—except that new blood has been injected into Indian politics and, once again, the role of the dynasty was revived.

This has happened on both sides of the political spectrum, with sons and daughters of major industrialists and regional political families throwing their hats in the ring. Since most of India’s present leadership is well into its late seventies, the trend augurs well for the future politics of India. While the introduction of the next generation into public life could bring a fresh outlook to the country’s social, economic, and political life, much will depend on the post-election policies of the ruling party in Delhi.

The warming of relations between India and Pakistan that began at the January summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has produced some results. New land routes between the two countries have been opened, air travel resumed, cultural teams have crossed borders, and five cricket matches played, creating a more congenial atmosphere between the two old rivals. Although there has been talk of closer and tangible trade relations, there has been little progress, and diplomatic relations between the two neighbors could best be described as warm, not friendly.

Much will depend on the post-election policies of the ruling party in Delhi.

The one question that Islamabad hopes to address—Kashmir—has yet to be tackled in a meaningful way. Hard-liners on both sides tend to be inflexible on this subject. Some minor progress has been made, reportedly at the insistence of the United States, but how far Washington is willing to exert pressure depends on the outcome of U.S. elections— and on developments in Afghanistan and Iraq. The worsening of the Iraqi situation in recent weeks has defied most U.S. and British projections. Whatever the outcome in Iraq and Afghanistan, Hindu India and, especially, Muslim Pakistan will feel the impact.

The Border Region

Across the border from Pakistan, President Hamid Karzai has yet to gain control of all Afghanistan. His influence, in fact, appears still to be confined to Kabul. Not only do men like Abdul Rasheed Dostam literally control entire regions of the country, ruling over their own fiefdoms, but less powerful warlords are re-emerging as well. Karzai recently has indicated a willingness to work with former Taliban members if that can help develop the country, but to date not much is visible on this score. For his part, neocon American Ambassador Zalmay Kahalilzad misses no opportunity to complain that Pakistan is not helping in getting rid of al-Qaeda members—a charge Islamabad rejects.

Pakistan has its hands full in the border regions of federally administered tribal areas (FATA). The past three months have seen the ceding of federal authority in south Wazirstan, where, following continuous military operations, Islamabad agreed to a truce, releasing over 50 tribal leaders on the pledge that they not harbor or support any al-Qaeda elements in the future.

This serves to illustrate the limitations of the Kabul government as well in its attempt to control regional tribal powers. Indeed, this situation has existed in the region for more than 200 years—even the British could not control the tribal chiefs, and let them run their own affairs as they wished.

Pakistan has an additional problem, due to the common assumption in the country that Islamabad’s foreign as well as domestic policies are dictated by the United States. As a result, there is a serious wedge between the street and the government. Even some of the country’s leaders and major media outlets take the line that President Pervez Musharraf receives his orders from Washington—meaning that not much is gained on the political front. Pakistan’s economic scorecard, however, has gained respectability.

Pakistani Anomalies

Interesting developments within and without the country have created some significant anomalies. Pakistan’s Supreme Court has allowed Shabaz Shareef, younger brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Shareef and head of the old Muslim League party, to return to Pakistan from his exile abroad. Despite the fact that he faces court charges, Shabaz has indicated his willingness to return sometime in mid-May.

On the other hand, Islamabad announced its willingness to allow Asif Ali Zardari, the imprisoned husband of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, to go to Switzerland to defend himself against money laundering charges. Zardari has declined the travel offer, however, on grounds of health, while Benazir, who lives in London, has said she is unable to defend herself in the Swiss court. The case against the couple has now been moved up two months.

Thus, while one leader (Shabaz) is willing to come home and face charges, the other (Zardari) has turned down an offer to leave.

New political developments in the country, meanwhile, have stalwarts like Farooq Leghari joining Musharraf’s Muslim League, amid strong rumors that Musharraf formally may become its head. There also is a new move to ask the general cum president not to remove his uniform, and the national debate on the bill creating the National Security Council (NSC) produced strange alliances. For all practical purposes, it appears that Musharraf has decided to remain in the president’s house for some time to come.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a Washington, DC-based specialist on South Asia.

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