Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, December 2003, page 41

The Subcontinent

 

As Ayodhya Anniversary Nears, Religious Frenzy, Caste Tensions Drive Indian Politics

 

By M.M. Ali

State elections in November and December in five states within what is known as northern India’s Hindi Belt are likely to determine the outcome of next year’s national elections. Specifically, the real political battles will be fought in Uttar Pradesh (UP), where a BJP-BSP (Bharatiya Janata Party and Bhojang Samaj Party) government led by BSP leader Mayawati recently fell, allowing Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadhav to form a new government. Forthcoming elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and Delhi (and in Mizoram, in the country’snortheast) are expected to draw over 140 million people to the polls. The ruling Congress Party in these states is expected to go mano a mano with the right-wing BJP, which heads the national coalition government.

Of course, the political waters already are muddied. The BJP government is using its intelligence agencies to dig up dirt on rival leaders, who in turn have leveled charges of nepotism against BJP leaders (citing, for example, the wealth amassed by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s foster son-in-law, Ranjan Bhatachariya), as well as of strong-arm tactics against minorities.

For the first time in 50 years, the Indian Election Commission has asked candidates to submit their financial statements along with their criminal records. This has already created misgivings about the real intentions of the government agencies. Strong political pressure is being exerted on the supreme court, which until now has retained a degree of independence. The ruling BJP has used its parliamentary majority to offset judicial rulings in recent months, and judicial appointments also have been subject to political considerations.

 

Heating Up Ayodhya

As national elections draw nearer, Hindu extremist parties like the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), the Bajrang Dal and the Rashtriya Swayem Sewak Sangh (RSS)—all members of the ruling BJP coalition—have stepped up their demand to construct a Hindu temple in Ayodhya (once Faizabad), UP, on the site of the Muslim mosque demolished in December 1992. Only a court decision stands between the right-wing Hindu “volunteers” known as Sewaks and the site. The Supreme Court of India has yet to render its verdict on the l992 incident, or confirm whether a temple was buried under the site of the mosque. To date excavations have unearthed no verifiable evidence of a temple.

As the anniversary of the Dec. 6 demolition approaches and electioneering heats up, the Sewaks, led by hard-line Hindu leaders, are trying to reach Ayodhya with their bricks and shovels. Thus far the UP government has managed to keep them outside the municipal limits. With the number of militant Hindus traveling to Ayodhya increasing with each passing day, however, pressure is mounting. VHP Secretary-General Praveen Togadia has threatened Prime Minister Vajpayee and UP chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadhav that, if the Sewaks are stopped in Ayodhya, the VHP will unleash its demand to “demolish 3,200” other mosques across the country, and threatened communal Hindu-Muslim riots throughout India—citing Gujarat, where over 2,000 Muslims were massacred just three months ago—as an example of what may come.

 

The number of militant Hindus traveling to Ayodhya increases with each passing day.

Reports from other parts of India are equally fearsome. The national English-language daily Indian Express on Sept. 28 reported that the entire village of Aklera, Rajasthan, was made “Muslim free” by local Bajrang Dal squads forcibly evicting local Muslim families from the village. Overnight, Muslims who had lived in the area for centuries had to abandon their hearths and homes and flee for their lives.

Following the Gujarat riots, it will be recalled, those accused were set free by the local court when all the witnesses strangely turned hostile. On appeal, the supreme court, which now has taken up the case of 14 Muslims burned alive in a bakery, has issued strong strictures against state chief minister Narender Modi. Said Chief Justice Khare: “Quit if you cannot protect the citizens.”

ýeanwhile, a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) special court investigating the Dec. 6, 1992 Babri Masjid demolition dismissed charges against Deputy Prime Minister Lal Krishna Advani, but found grounds to proceed against seven others, including central minister Murli Manohar Joshi, former minister Uma Bharati, and VHP leader Ashok Singal.

 

India Willing Only to Play Cricket

After months of repeated pleadings from Pakistan to open a dialogue on normalizing relations, Indian Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha presented a list of measures Delhi is willing to undertake to live in peace with its neighbor. These include cricket matches—but not a discussion of the Kashmir dispute. India’s ruling BJP government has invited one component of the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference (the organization of Kashmir freedom fighters) for talks, and jailed the others. London and Washington have welcomed Sinha’s statement and the international media is almost jubilant. For its part, Islamabad, expressing a “cautious welcome,” has advanced its own set of proposals.

 

Maturity or Irrelevance in Pakistan?

Whether it is a sign of political maturity or of institutional irrelevance depends on who is doing the looking. While Pakistan’s president and prime minister were away on foreign tours, the National Assembly remained in session. The country’s leaders managed to be in Islamabad, however, for U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Gen. John P. Abizaid, head of the U.S. Central Command, and for the separate visit of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdullah.

Rumors abound that Washington is pressuring Pakistan to commit peacekeeping troops to Iraq, but Islamabad is said to be waiting for others to take the lead.

 

Fluid Afghan-Pakistan Borders

In Afghanistan, the military situation remains uneasy. Warlords continue to defy President Hamid Karzai’s authority, and the U.S. repeatedly has had to use its air and ground forces to quash disturbances.

Equally challenging have been skirmishes along the Afghan-Pakistani border—a difficult terrain that has defied authority for years. Neither the previous Afghan governments nor current Pakistani authorities have been able fully to tame the tribal chiefs who historically have defied the established governments in favor of their respective tribes.

This state of affairs has been totally out of control since the Soviet invasion and occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Their departure, with its attendant reduction of central authority in Kabul, only intensified the country’s tribalism. With the additon of Taliban-flamed religious fervor, the region now is one of almost total chaos.

Despite the capture or killing of many al-Qaeda members by Pakistan, Afghanistan and the U.S., remnants reportedly cross between Afghanistan and Pakistan, fomenting unrest. In addition to the expansion of NATO military authority from Kabul alone to most of the country, the U.S. is trying to induce Afghans to surrender their arms in exchange for money. That attempt, however well intentioned, has very little chance of achieving measurable success among a people who have only one skill to offer—their use of firearms.

Other players that bear close watching are regional powers trying to create chaos in the area for their own purposes.

Prof. M.M. Ali, a specialist on South Asia based in Washington, DC area, is a consultant with the United Nations Development Program.

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