Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, November 2003, page 18

Special Report

 

Pan Am 103 Case Winding Down, Despite Continued Doubts About Libya's Guilt

 

By Andrew I. Killgore

Dr. Robert Black, professor of criminal law at Edinburgh University in Scotland and mastermind of the unique legal arrangements for trying Libyan defendants under Scottish law in the Netherlands, reiterated to the Washington Report on Sept. 15 his doubts that Abdul Basset Ali al-Megrahi was guilty of bombing Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland on Dec. 21, 1988. An appeal of Megrahi's conviction to the Scottish Criminal Law Review Commissioner on grounds that he had had an inadequate defense will be ready within weeks, Black said.

Prospects are good that an appeal will be successful, in the law professor's view, but this does not mean that a full public inquiry into who really planted the bomb that destroyed the plane is likely. Too much time has passed for that, Black said. If the appeal is successful, it would go a long way to restore confidence in the Scottish judiciary, which suffered from a 75-page judgment finding Megrahi guilty when a decision of "not proven" had seemed clearly indicated.

According to the Aug. 1 London Observer, Matt Berkley, who lost a brother in the Pan Am 103 crash, will not accept his share of the $2.7 billion offered by Libya as compensation. According to Berkley, there was "no credible evidence" that Libya was to blame. Like many other (British) relatives of those who died, he maintains that the truth about Pan Am 103 still is shrouded in mystery, and has called on the government to hold a full public inquiry. There is a strong suspicion among British relatives, the Guardian reported, that the "the deal was brokered" to allow Libya back into the international community and to open its economy to Western companies. Berkley believes that further investigation would turn up evidence pointing to the "real culprits."

The majority of relatives, however, appear likely to accept the compensation, and, except for winding up the details, the Lockerbie case seems over. Jim Swire, spokesman for some or all of the relatives, and who lost a daughter, Flora, in the crash, was quoted as saying, "The agreement still leaves open the question of the truth behind Lockerbie." He did not say whether he would accept the compensation.

Tripoli is acting as if Lockerbie is indeed over, and is doing all it can to negotiate the unsettled details with Washington, according to the Financial Times of Sept. 22. Libyan Foreign Minister Abdurrahman Shalgam said that the first round of talks with the United States could begin in early October, the goal being "to normalize bilateral relations."

United Nations sanctions against Libya were lifted in September. The U.S. will keep its own sanctions in place, and Libya will remain on the State Department's list of states that sponsor terrorism. Shalgam's intent in "normalizing" relations will be to have both of these dropped.

"Why confront America?" Shalgam was quoted as asking, noting that the Arab States had no way to do so. Libya's aims are twofold: to rehabilitate its civil aviation industry and to expand its oil investments—neither of which are achievable without U.S. technology.

When the Washington Report visited Libya in November 2000, the whole country looked tired and run-down. No new computers could be acquired because every computer has at least one American component. The oil industry was limping along, but oil concessions were being held open for U.S. companies in hopes that the Americans would return with their know-how. The whole society gave an impression of primitiveness out of keeping with the sophistication that would have been required to load an explosive device in Malta and have it explode over Lockerbie, Scotland, in accordance with the theory of the Lockerbie prosecutors.

Shalgam revealed that Libya's strategic goal is to increase its oil production from 1.2 million to 3 million barrels a day over the next 15 years. In convincing Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi to go ahead and try to settle the Lockerbie matter, Shalgam said that Libyan economists had convinced Qaddafi that Libya would recover its $2.7 billion outlay within 20 months if U.N. and U.S. sanctions were lifted.

Shalgam demonstrated a keen understanding of American political dynamics. Libya is betting that lawyers for the victims' families and "the family community itself" would now press for normalization. "The lawyers have contacts with their own lobbies and oil companies also have lobbies," Shalgam observed.

It should be noted that, compared to the British media, the American media have given only limited coverage overall to the Lockerbie tragedy, despite the fact that the great majority of victims were American.

Andrew I. Killgore is publisher of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs.

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