Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, May 2003, page 34

Special Report

 

Despite Uncertainties and Delays, Saudi Arabian Reforms on Track

 

By Richard H. Curtiss

A Saudi-owned London newspaper on Jan. 13 leaked a portion of Crown Prince Abdullah’s proposal for a new “Arab Charter,” which calls for “internal reform and enhanced political participation in the Arab countries.” With so many other problems in the Middle East, however, it has been difficult to move the reform project along. The “Arab Charter” was expected to be raised at the recently completed Arab League summit, but the meeting broke up, in some disarray, before the proposal was brought to the table.

Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud has been supportive of an intellectuals’ reform manifesto entitled “A Vision for the Present and Future of the Homeland.” In essence, it calls for a constitution and a Bill of Rights, all carefully couched in the language of Islam.

The reformers are pushing for an elected legislature in place of the current Shura Council, which is appointed by the king. Other proposed reforms include local and regional elections, an independent judiciary, and royal guarantees of freedom of expression, association, assembly, the right to vote and to participate, and of all other human rights. Not only does the manifesto call for full rights for women within the Islamic sharia tradition, it also urges the royal family to confront the abuse of official power.

Royal support for these ideas, and moves in the past two months to start the ball rolling, are the result of intensive debate within the Saudi royal family. The reported decisions have strong support from some senior princes who, for the most part, are in their fifties and sixties and have had extensive contact with the West.

The main debate, spearheaded by the crown prince, seems to be over for the time being—and, as with all royal family matters, the disagreements largely were kept private. What is clear, however, is that over a period of time a democratic National Assembly may emerge.

The reform debate also showed clearly that the influential Saudi business community, which enthusiastically backed the proposed reforms, seems certain that the country will start moving again, after a long period of relative economic uncertainty.

Until recently, one of the uncertainties has been the health of King Fahd, who fell ill in 1995. Since then, Crown Prince Abdullah has been the country’s acting executive—although it has often been unclear exactly when King Fahd would be present and when he could preside at ceremonial occasions.

For all practical purposes, however, the crown prince is in charge, with no serious objection from any of his relatives. That being the case, the needed reforms will become front and center for the entire Kingdom.

 

The Saudi intelligentsia has been the most impatient for change.

While it is very clear that the reforms are coming rapidly, there have been so many obstacles to Saudi Arabia’s foreign and domestic agendas that it is unclear exactly when the reforms will begin to be enacted.

One thing that is almost certain is that, when the problems with Saddam Hussain are resolved, the Saudis will consider asking the U.S. to withdraw from their country. Most Saudis realize that they should have done that after the first Gulf war. Because the crisis continued, however, many of Saudi Arabia’s internal problems reached critical levels, with no one able to decide what to do about them. This time, the Saudis will move as rapidly as possible to implement representational government.

Ironically, the Saudi government has been down this road before. The Kingdom pioneered a consultative process in the 1920s, but it did not last. Now, with the crown prince’s support and the business class on board, Saudi reformers are traveling the same route as their predecessors.

Word already has been passed to the crown prince’s advisers that the Saudi clergy’s more extreme members are expected to stop the fire-and-brimstone sermons that create so much internal unease. This will not be as easy as it looks, because for a very long time the Kingdom has given such sermons largely free reign as long as political topics were avoided.

Such “benign neglect” goes back to the early and abiding alliance between the house of Saud and Sheikh Mohammad Ibn Abd al Wahhab and his family. This relationship resulted in the observance throughout Saudi Arabia of a strict interpretation of Islam.

Meanwhile, it is the Saudi intelligentsia that has been the most impatient for change. After extensive discussions, a group of 104 Saudis signed a manifesto calling for representative government. While this is not the first time such manifestos have been proposed, in general there has not been much follow-up in this deeply conservative country. At the time of the first Gulf war, an abortive attempt at reform began when Saudi women, all of whom can drive when abroad, showed up behind the wheel of their cars for a day. The result was not what these “revolutionaries” anticipated. Many of the working women found their careers at least temporarily derailed. Although most eventually regained their positions, it was clear that the government was not willing to negotiate under pressure.

This time, not only have the intellectual leaders signed a manifesto, but, happily, Crown Prince Abdullah already has invited members of the group to enter into serious dialogue. As long as the emerging Saudi educated elites, the princes’ extended families, and the deeply religious majority continue working together, Saudi Arabia will remain stable.

 

Changes Under Way

Indeed, changes already are well under way. Boys’ and girls’ schools have consolidated under the Saudi Education Ministry. Women are now entitled to apply for their own identity cards, and Saudi companies with more than 100 employees are allowed to form workers’ unions.

While continuing to hold religious extremism in check, Saudis also are working peacefully to encourage political participation. In fact, Saudi educators say that even the concepts of citizenship and peaceful debate are not well understood in their society. Saudis are particularly concerned that the reform debate may be misconstrued as coming “from the United States.” If that happens, Saudis in all walks of life fear that any attempt at reform will backfire.

There is speculation in Riyadh that local elections may be held within the next year, and that, by 2005, at least part of the Shura Council will be elected. Overall, the process is expected to culminate in free parliamentary elections, constitutions that guarantee equal rights for citizens, a just and independent judiciary, transparency in public accounts, a clear division between the various branches of power, and freedom of the press.

Crown Prince Abdullah has made it clear that he realizes the need for reform, but that he would rather implement it himself. The question, as other Saudis put it, is whether top-down reforms will come fast enough to beat the bottom-up demands for change.

Richard H. Curtiss is executive editor of the the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs.

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