Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, March 2003, page 11

Special Report

 

Washington Finds Itself at Cross Purposes In the Middle East

 

By Kurt Holden

The George W. Bush administration seems to be getting deeper and deeper into a welter of cross-purposes that only a jigsaw puzzle enthusiast could unscramble. Once again it will be up to Secretary of State Colin L. Powell to make sense of it all. If he can handle it at this point, the whole world will be in his debt.

As the popular American movie star and producer Sean Penn said upon returning from a three-day trip to Iraq, this is either “the biggest game of chicken ever invented,” or the world is going to be in deep trouble. The rest of us can only wonder how Powell can make sense out of the mess into which Bush’s bombast and braggadocio has gotten us.

United Nations Chief Inspector Hans Blix has made a preliminary report to the Security Council and next will present his findings on Jan. 27, to be followed by another presentation in late March. Blix has said that the inspectors need more time—at least until March—before reaching a conclusion, At this point President Bush will declare that Iraq already is in “material breach.” On that basis, he will argue, the Security Council should proceed with a war to force Saddam Hussain from power.

But the rush to war is visibly flagging. America’s only solid support for a war now is Great Britain’s Prime Minister Tony Blair. The British public, however, is now overwhelmingly against a war—unless, of course, “a smoking gun” materializes. In the absence of such evidence, the Blair government cannot continue backing Bush.

Similarly, in the absence of proof that the Iraqi leader is cheating, about 15 percent of the Turkish public would support a war, with the remaining 85 percent opposed. As it now stands, a war in which American ground troops actually go into action from bases in Turkey is not feasible under those circumstances. The Turkish generals could not proceed with such a thin margin of support from the Turkish public.

In the face of international opposition, it is going to be Colin Powell’s job once again to slow down Bush’s unseemly haste for war. The Pentagon hawks may continue to scream for war, but Powell must mute them. If Vice President Richard Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and super-hawk Assistant Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz are not put on a shorter leash, there will be a serious loss of confidence by Western allies and Arab League leaders alike.

Standing against the war party spearheaded by Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz are Colin Powell and Assistant Secretary of State Richard Armitage. There is, however, another factor that probably will turn the tide in Powell’s favor, as it has in each of the previous crises.

George Bush spends at least half an hour daily with CIA Director George Tenet, whose highly classified briefings have turned out to be extremely influential. In fact, it is impossible to overstate the importance of these briefings. To a large extent, they set the president’s daily foreign affairs agenda. Bush and Tenet have complete confidence in one another, despite the obvious differences in their backgrounds. Indeed, their bond goes somewhat deeper than one might expect.

 

Another factor probably will turn the tide in Powell’s favor.

Tenet, a holdover from President Bill Clinton’s administration, is a Greek-American whose father was a prosperous restaurant owner. Before serving in responsible Capitol Hill positions, including a stint with Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, Tenet junior spent many hours working in his father’s restaurant.

Tenet was named CIA director in 1997. He came into national prominence when, at the Wye River conference, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu pressured Clinton to release convicted spy Jonathan J. Pollard. When Tenet realized that Clinton actually was toying with the idea of releasing the American traitor, he told Clinton he would resign immediately if such a bargain was even struck. Tenet knew he had the support of the entire foreign policy establishment—Republicans and Democrats alike—which would fight to the end to keep Pollard in prison forever, or until he finally told the whole truth about who his top U.S. government handlers were.

Bush’s appreciation of Tenet is based not only on his belief that the CIA director is terribly important in any administration, but upon his father’s experience as CIA director, before he became U.S. ambassador to China and later vice president and president. Tenet’s willingness to place the national interest before his own political advantage, in apparent contrast to Clinton’s priorities, demonstrated to George W. Bush that he could rely on Tenet’s integrity. The fact that they have become close personal friends as well has only strengthened Bush’s trust.

Despite Bush’s apparent haste to go to war, he will have to slow down because of Powell’s insistence on keeping allies aboard, and, presumably, similar cautions from Tenet.

In the meantime, it is frightening to see more and more U.S. troops being deployed so rapidly across the Middle East. As it stands now, Saudi Arabia probably will make available Prince Sultan Air Base, south of Riyadh, if the United Nations Security Council approves a second Iraq resolution. Without such a resolution, however, the base probably will not be used to launch an attack. This scenario most likely would apply to Turkey as well. Nor will other European military forces be forthcoming without a second Security Council resolution. Given time and proof that Saddam Hussain is in violation of the U.N., all this can be dealt with. It cannot, however, be rushed.

 

Wishful Thinking?

Perhaps Bush is hoping that the Iraqi president, realizing his days are numbered, will make some gesture to find a way to go into exile rather than precipitating a war. If that is what Bush is trying to effect, more power to him. That would be one way to end the crisis without bloodshed.

What is worrisome, however, is that the rest of the world is not convinced that this extraordinary “game of chicken” will work out as Bush plans. Moreover, if it doesn’t succeed, what is the fallback strategy?

The Israel-firsters are desperate to create a diversion and thus postpone the time of reckoning in the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. Once Israeli elections are held at the end of January, however, that moment no longer can be postponed. It would simplify matters if Israeli voters elect the Labor Party’s Amram Mitzna and like-minded allies. But that probably won’t happen quite yet.

If Ariel Sharon ekes out another electoral victory, Washington will have to take whatever measures are necessary to stop the slaughter in the West Bank and Gaza and close the illegal Israeli settlements. To solve that fundamental conflict, all the rest of the world will support any measures for peace and justice for both Palestinians and Israelis.

So the United States has its work cut out for it. Let us hope that Powell prevails, Bush slows down and the Israeli lobby and its American allies are pushed back into their cages. This is a defining moment. Hopefully, peace and justice eventually will triumph.

Kurt Holden, a retired educational filmmaker, divides his time between the U.S. and the Middle East.

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