Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, March 2003, page 32

Congress Watch

 

Republicans Retake Control of Senate as 108th Congress Convenes

 

By Shirl McArthur

With the convening of both the House and the Senate, the 108th Congress was off and sputtering on Jan. 7, 2003. Although the new Congress faces several urgent, high-profile issues—the looming Cheney-Rumsfeld war on Iraq, North Korea’s nuclear threat, the continuing anti-terrorism campaign, and competing economic recovery plans, not to mention the 11 FY2003 appropriations bills held over from the 107th Congress—Congress worked only a couple of days before recessing until Jan. 27. It did, however, manage officially to establish the leadership structure of the majority and minority parties as well as the leadership of the various committees.

The leadership changes receiving the most attention are in the Senate, where the Republicans retake control with a slim two-vote majority after their victories in November, and where Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) takes over as majority leader after Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS), who was in line for the post, made some stupid, racist remarks during a retirement party for Sen. Strom Thurmond (R-SC).

Lott’s replacement by Frist is likely to have little immediate effect on issues affecting the Middle East. Neither has figured in any of the positive or negative columns in this magazine’s most recent “Halls of Fame and Shame”—although Lott made some pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian statements during the last Congress. Frist is considered probably more intelligent than Lott, but perhaps less politically adept. This worries some Republicans, who fear that Senate minority leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) may be able to outmaneuver Frist on some issues, resulting in a legislative logjam similar to that seen in the previous Congress.

The major changes in the Senate affecting the Middle East will be in the Foreign Relations Committee where, with the retirement of former chairman Jesse Helms (R-NC), Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) takes over the chairmanship from Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE). Lugar, a member of this magazine’s most recent “Hall of Fame,” is considered a moderate internationalist, and was chairman of the committee during the presidency of Ronald Reagan. He and Biden agree on most issues, so there are unlikely to be any major shifts in the committee’s overall agenda. In the past Lugar has taken the lead in such issues as safeguarding Russia’s nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, and restricting or eliminating the use of unilateral economic sanctions. Those issues, therefore—particularly North Korea’s weapons program—are likely to move up on the committee’s agenda.

The committee membership will remain relatively constant, with the major difference being the big hole left by the death of Sen. Paul Wellstone (D-MN). In addition, the Democrats lost Sen. Bob Torricelli (D-NJ). Both were also members of the Middle East subcommittee, of which Wellstone was chairman.

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), who will retake control of the Middle East subcommittee, is an ardent supporter of Israel. During his previous stint as chairman during the Clinton administration, he held a number of Arab-bashing hearings, and these are likely to resume. Although subcommittee membership has not been determined as this is being written, with the exception Wellstone and Torricelli, it is likely that the remaining Democratic members of the committee will remain the same. Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), who is Jewish and a strong supporter of Israel, will likely become the ranking minority member. Boxer introduced S. 2215, the Syria accountability bill, in the last Congress. On the Republican side, Frist will probably be replaced by a newly elected Republican.

 

House Leadership Changes Not Good News

Although control of the House of Representatives did not change, and Rep. Dennis Hastert (R-IL) remains House speaker, other leadership changes occurred that are not good news for U.S. interests in the Middle East. The number-two House Republican, majority leader Dick Armey (R-TX), retired and was replaced by Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX). DeLay is one of those bible-belt conservatives who believe, or think their constituents believe, that the Jews should have all of Israel and Palestine because “God gave it to them.” It was DeLay who last April introduced H.R. 392, the Israel Solidarity bill, which included 10 statements of support for Israel and condemnations of the PA and President Yasser Arafat.

Nor does it get better. Replacing DeLay as House majority whip, the number three party position, is Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), another member of the conservative Christian, Israel-first group. Last May Blunt introduced H.R. 4693, a stronger version of the Middle East Peace Commitments Act, which eventually was incorporated into the Foreign Affairs authorization bill, which was signed into law in September (see below). Blunt’s version would have allowed for no presidential waiver.

Blunt then named as his chief deputy whip Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), the House’s only Jewish Republican member, whom one House staff member once referred to as “AIPAC’s errand boy.” Cantor introduced several pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian bills and resolutions in the 107th Congress. Some, such as H.R. 3624, which would have cut off all direct or indirect assistance to the Palestinians, were so extreme that even AIPAC and other Jewish leadership groups didn’t support them. Cantor’s appointment surprised many political observers, because Blunt passed over other, more senior candidates (Cantor will be beginning only his second term in Congress). Cantor has worked to reach out to Jewish voters, not just in his home district, and his appointment is seen as part of an attempt to draw more Jewish voters into the Republican Party.

Rep. Henry Hyde continues as chairman of the House International Relations Committee. While he has been critical of the Palestinians, especially Arafat, he is not rabidly pro Israel, and seems genuinely concerned about the humanitarian situation in Palestine. As reported in the November issue of this magazine, Hyde is interested in developing and implementing a “Marshall Plan for the Middle East” as a way to bring some economic hope to both Israelis and Palestinians. However, the committee’s ranking Democrat remains Rep. Tom Lantos (D-CA), the most effective of the Israel-first group in the House. Hyde has determined that he has to work with Lantos on most issues, so it is likely that any measure providing additional help to the Middle East will include a disproportionate amount of goodies for Israel.

With the retirement of Rep. Benjamin Gilman (R-NY), who chaired the Middle East subcommittee, Hyde will have to decide whether to fold Middle East matters back into the full committee or name a new subcommittee chairman. If he chooses the latter, the next in line would be Rep. Dan Burton (R-IN), another member of the Christian conservative, Israel-first group.

 

Bush Waives Palestinian Sanctions

The Middle East Peace Commitments Act, which was incorporated into the Foreign Affairs Authorization Act, requires the president to report to Congress every six months on whether the PLO and/or the PA are complying with their commitments under the Oslo and other agreements. If he determines non-compliance, he is to impose one of four specified sanctions, or explicitly waive the sanctions. On Dec. 2 Bush found the Palestinians in “non-compliance,” but immediately exercised the waiver provision. Although several Jewish groups hailed Bush’s action as being the first time the president has explicitly said that the Palestinians were in non-compliance, this is because under the previous law, the PLO Commitments Compliance Act, the president was not required to issue a strict yes or no conclusion.

Shirl McArthur, a retired foreign service officer, is a consultant in the Washington, DC area.

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