Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, November 2008, pages 31-32

Special Report

The Mines Bush Planted in Iraq Could Derail Obama Policies and Strategy There

By Faruq Ziada

	U.S. soldiers are seen at the scene of two bombings in the Harfiyeh neighborhood of Baghdad on September 17, 2008. Eight people were killed and 25 wounded when the two bombs went off minutes apart in this neighborhood of west Baghdad, an interior ministry official said (AFP photo/Ali Yussef).

SENATOR Barack Obama’s vision for a new strategy for Iraq calls for U.S. troops to redeploy out of Iraq by the middle of 2010. He envisions leaving only a small contingent of U.S. forces to safeguard the U.S. Embassy, train the Iraqi army, and respond to any al-Qaeda actions in Iraq. This will save about $10 billion a month—money which could then be funneled to education and health programs at home. Obama’s plan would require the Iraqi leadership and government to make tough choices to achieve reconciliation and a national army.

But the Democratic nominee’s plan is doomed to fail if Obama does not recognize and rectify the “facts on the ground” that the George W. Bush administration has created in Iraq, which in effect chains and predetermines the policies of any incoming administration.

Iraq—which had one of the best civil service systems in the Middle East and the highest number of professional staff in government under Saddam Hussain—was ready to be a model for democracy and development in the region. All it needed was a secular modern democratic system of government.

Instead, following its invasion the Bush administration imposed an imbalanced sectarian political process and a confederate constitution on the country. This has resulted in—indeed, guarantees—continuous strife and conflict in Iraq and, five years later, has precluded the achievement of security, stability or development.

Whether through ignorance or design—although most Iraqis today believe that it was the latter—the Bush policy was based on the fallacy that, since the Shi’i and Kurds represented 80 percent of Iraq’s population and the Sunnis only 20 percent, the Sunnis therefore should be marginalized and stripped of all powers. The Washington Post’s David Ignatius referred to this policy in an early 2005 article as “the 20 Percent Factor.”

The facts are that, as shown in the results of Iraq’s January 2005 and December 2005 elections, and in United Nations documents and Security Council Decisions, the Iraqis are composed as follows:

• 83 percent Arab, 13 percent Kurd, 4 percent Turks and other nationalities.
• 95 percent Muslim, 5 percent Christian and other religions.
• 58 percent Sunni (95 percent of Kurds being Sunnis), 39 percent Shi’i and 3 percent others.

In the January 2005 elections held under U.S. supervision, with the full approval of the Shi’i government and the Shi’i Marjaiya (clergy), the Shi’i bloc received 26.3 percent of the total eligible votes; in the December 2005 elections, which formed the country’s present parliament, the Shi’i bloc received 32.2 percent of all eligible votes. According to the U.S. government and the Shi’i bloc, there was a 90 percent Shi’i voter turnout. U.N. Security Council Resolution 986, which approved the “Oil for Food Program,” determined that the Kurds constituted 13 percent of the Iraqi population. The 2005 elections showed them to be 14 percent of the population.

Thus, the Bush administration gave the Shi’i and Kurds, who represent approximately 52 percent of Iraq’s population, control over 80 percent of the political process. Its goal was to create division and turmoil among Iraqis in order to maintain a weak Iraq that would succumb to the neo-con goal of control of oil resources and the establishment of U.S. military bases—a situation that a unified, stable and economically developed Iraq would never accept.

If elected president, Senator Obama will be holding a hot potato. He will have to deal with a minority government of backward sectarian Shi’i politicians, Iranian-bred Shi’i clerics, a group of sectarian Sunni politicians—i.e., the Islamic Party—and a separatist Kurdish leadership ruling Iraq under U.S. military protection. He will face a situation where:

• A Shi’i sectarian government representing a minority of Iraqis clings to power to establish Shi’i political control and ethnic cleansing, a clique which today is rejected even by the majority of Arab Shi’i and reviled as servile to Iran. Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki has officially stated that reconciliation has been achieved and that there is no need for any further steps, even though today the city of Baghdad is divided into ghettos by 26-foot high concrete walls, making travel from one side of the city to the other nearly impossible.
• A Sunni majority bloc refuses to accept the present sectarian situation or political system and demands a review of the constitution and political structure.
• A Kurdish leadership is doing all it can to separate from Iraq, despite the wishes of Iraqi Kurds.

Because of this U.S.-imposed sectarian system, Iraq will remain in turmoil, affecting the stability of the entire region. Security will continue to be an issue because of the death squad militias which are part of Iraq’s current police, security forces and army. This prevents the return from neighboring countries of the 2.5 million displaced Iraqis, who represent the middle class and professionals of Iraq. The plight of internally and externally displaced Iraqis is a black mark on the conscience of the United States.

For Obama to succeed and achieve his vision of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and the repatriation of $10 billion a month of American taxpayers’ money, he will have to take the following steps:

1. Announce a firm schedule for the withdrawal of all U.S. forces.
2. Withdraw U.S. forces to Iraq’s borders in order to stop the infiltration of men and arms from Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria.
3. Withdraw the remaining U.S. forces to U.S. bases in Iraq as a first step toward removing them from Iraq. These two steps will reduce U.S. casualties to almost nil.
4. Conduct a full review of laws passed after the U.S. invasion, as well as a review of the constitution which was voted on only to meet Bush’s re-election objectives.
5. Assist with early elections, which must be announced with the full supervision of the United Nations, the Arab League, and independent monitoring teams.

The minute Washington announces its intention to withdraw U.S. forces, 90 percent of the Iraqi politicians currently in office (who entered Iraq on American tanks to begin with) will begin making preparations to leave the country, because they have no public support or popular backing. This will be the first step toward correcting the Bush administration-imposed sectarian political system with one that is modern, secular and democratic.

This will give reason to hope that a truly democratic Iraq—united, secular and strong—finally can be realized.

Faruq A.S. Ziada worked in Iraq’s Foreign Ministry from 1965 until his retirement in 2004. His positions included ambassador and chief adviser to the National Assembly.

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