Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, November 2002, pages 9-10

Special Report

 

Bush Okays Support for United Nations

 

By Richard H. Curtiss

President George W. Bush turned to the United Nations for support in the Iraq crisis, and the whole world turned upside down—and all for the better. Finding that the United States had lost support from the U.N. on the one hand and the Arab League states on the other, Bush realized that unilateralism does not work when it means the absence of bases and allies.

When he finally embarked on the United Nations route, the whole world breathed a sigh of relief. Instead of finding themselves at cross-purposes, the U.S., the U.N., and the Arab League now are likely to be working in tandem. Not coincidentally, whatever happens next Bush is almost certain to pick up significant support in exactly the places he needs it in the November elections.

Bush was ably assisted by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, who in the days following the president’s General Assembly speech worked patiently to turn what earlier had looked like an impasse into a model of international cooperation. Retired Gen. Brent Scowcroft, the former national security adviser to George W. Bush’s father, had warned against haste in the offensive against President Saddam Hussain. Scowcroft now credits President Bush with “pursuing a brilliant bit of diplomacy.”

Bush followed a strategy of hastening Iraq’s compliance with 16 previous resolutions, all of which Saddam Hussain had ignored. This time, Bush said, there would be no more delays: either the Iraqi leader would comply or the U.N. would act immediately—by armed force if necessary.

Bush asked the Security Council to act promptly and, if possible, within one week, to provide the implementing resolution. Security Council delegates began consultations, with the clear understanding that if a resolution of compliance could not be agreed upon, the Bush administration would be prepared to go it alone with whatever allies could be mustered. Almost immediately, Secretary-General Kofi Annan received a note saying that Iraq would comply with Bush’s demand.

 

It appears that war has been averted for the moment—if not indefinitely.

While Bush urged the adoption of an implementing resolution without delay, France and other major countries supported a two-phased response. Under this approach Iraq would be called upon immediately to restore U.N. weapons inspections in accordance with existing Security Council resolutions. Should Baghdad begin to stall, a new implementing resolution calling for military force would be adopted.

Although Bush is reluctant to break the action into two separate stages, France and its supporters insist on giving Iraq time to show whether Saddam Hussain is serious.

Although Bush will complain about delays, it will make very little difference in terms of American domestic politics. The longer it takes to implement Bush’s proposal, the closer the U.S. elections will be. Democrats realize that the sooner U.N. inspections begin, the better chance their party will have to address their other electoral concerns.

With U.S. national elections to be held Nov. 5, this is the optimum time to maximize Republican electoral gains. Bush, in short, seems to have maneuvered himself into the most advantageous position for the 2002 elections. Democratic strategists can deplore the “coincidence” in timing, but it probably will do little good. Very likely there will be a nearly unanimous vote supporting Bush before members of Congress adjourn to campaign for re-election.

On the foreign relations side, Bush’s resort to the United Nations changes everything. Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al Faisal, for example, said that if the Security Council adopts a resolution, the member nations will have to support it. A senior Saudi official said that if the Security Council authorizes it, his government would permit its bases to be used for an attack on Iraq.

Saudi sources said this was intended to encourage Washington to continue working with the U.N. as well as to signal to Saddam Hussain that leading Arab nations would support any Security Council decision.

“The president’s decision to take the U.N. route is what every country in the world urged him to do,” said Saudi foreign policy adviser Adel Jubair.

It appears that war has been averted for the moment—if not indefinitely. There is no question, however, that the United States is now in an infinitely better position than it was only days before the president’s speech.

Briefly taking up residence in New York to work on the two conflicting approaches, Colin Powell’s triumph, at least for the time being, has also put him on top in the battle for influence within the Bush administration. If Saddam Hussain backslides, a war would be short and probably considerably less costly, given the support of so many allies, including the Arab states.

War or not, the war hawks in the administration will be on a tighter leash—and in the nick of time. The Bush administration once again can attend to the major foreign policy problem of our time. Or will the hawks try to set off on a new foreign adventure to avoid dealing with the Arab-Israeli dispute?

Now more than ever, what is needed is a permanent solution to that conflict. Perhaps, with the mid-term elections behind him, Bush finally will give the problem his undivided attention.

 

A Solution in the Wings

Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has cleared the way with his promise, backed up by the entire Arab League, that if the Israelis return to their 1967 borders all, or virtually all, of the Arab states will support a peace treaty. It is the best solution that can be devised to solve the vexing and unending impasse that has created so much dissension over so many years. It will also take the fuel out of the problem of mindless terrorism, the new conundrum of the 21st century.

America’s war party, led by Assistant Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, and Defense Policy Board member Richard Perle—and, sad to say, Vice President Richard Cheney and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld—now seems to have been brought under control, at least for the time being. With his unending pa-tience, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has blunted the effort of the administration hawks. Hopefully George W. Bush has learned who can solve a problem when it is necessary. And perhaps next time the war hawks start their drumbeat again, George W. Bush again will turn to Colin Powell for solutions.

Richard H. Curtiss is executive editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs.

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