Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, November 2002, page 26

Election Watch

 

American Jews Not Flocking to Republican Party, Poll Shows

 

by Janet McMahon

 

Results of a recent Gallup poll put the kibosh on any hopes President George W. Bush might have had that his conversion and apprenticeship to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon would generate a similar conversion by American Jews to the Republican Party. According to the Sept. 20 Jewish Week, Jewish Republicans still constitute fewer than 20 percent of American Jewish voters—17 percent, to be specific—compared to 50 percent who identify themselves as Democrats, and about one-third as independents.

“These numbers,” The Jewish Week noted, “come only months after a surge of news stories describing an impending shift to the GOP in response to Bush’s strong support for Israel’s campaign against suicide bombers and the growing pro-Israel zeal of congressional Republicans. Those reports also took note of the relative silence on Israel by congressional Democrats.”

As the Hudson Institute’s Marshall Wittman put it, “The Jewish community is still a very tough nut to crack for the Republican Party. You hear many more positive things about Bush [among Jews], but that is unlikely to translate into votes for other Republicans.”

The traditional liberalism of American Jews undoubtedly accounts in part for their affinity with the Democratic Party. According to the Gallup Poll results, 73 percent of Jewish respondents described themselves as moderate or liberal, compared to only 23 percent as conservative.

That finding, however, fails to account for such phenomena as conservative New York Times columnist William Safire’s 1992 announcement that he was going to vote for Democratic candidate Bill Clinton rather than Republican President George Bush I. Or that 66 percent of Jews surveyed in the recent Gallop Poll approve of Bush’s handling of his job.

It doesn’t take much brain-wracking to figure out that what former President Clinton and current President Bush share is an almost fanatical devotion to Israel—and that this in turn earns them the devotion of America’s Israel-firsters. Those who are Jewish are more likely to be Democrats, with Christian Zionists flocking to the Republican Party. While exceptions can be made, they seem not to translate into a change of party or overall political philosphy.

 

Money Talks

Congressman-elect Artujr Davis (D-AL), who defeated Rep. Earl Hilliard in a June 25 primary run off (see August Washington Report, p. 22), also shot to victory among House recipients of pro-Israel PAC money, crushing the formidable Shelley Berkley $63,067 to $39,345. Now seeking her third term in office, the Nevada Democrat already has been the beneficiary of $140,000 in pro-Israel PAC contributions, making her fourth in career totals.

Not quite making the top 10 House recipients in this election cycle was Denise Majette of Georgia, who defeated Rep. Cynthia McKinney in a mid-August Democratic primary (in which many Republicans voted). Majette’s $13,250 in pro-Israel PAC contributions was just short of earning her a place in this year’s top 10.

Aside from the fact that the African-American Davis has managed to integrate the top 10 in a big way, there’s another interesting aspect to the pro-Israel PACs’ new love affair with him and Majette. Based on the theory that “early money is like yeast,” these pro-Israel “stealth PACs” typically start feeding funds to their chosen few early on.

According to FEC records, however, as of March 31, 2002 Majette had received no PAC donations at all (although she may have received individual contributions). For his part, Hilliard had received a most respectable, and still-top-10-qualifying, $16,000 by the end of March. His early effort paled in comparison with his final total, however.

This raises the question of whether pro-Israel PACs are becoming more opportunistic, taking advantage of rather than merely creating their own reality—or so they would like us to think. Certainly they must be nonplussed—if there’s such a thing as a nonplussed PAC—by the fact that the $40,430 given to top 10 incumbent Sen. Robert Smith (R-NH) was not enough to defeat Rep. John Sununu’s primary challenge. We’ll be anxious to see how much additional campaign funds pour into the war chest of Sununu’s Democratic opponent, Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, which stood at $19,000 as of June 30, by the time Nov. 5 rolls around.

Inquiring minds want to know what Michigan’s Levin brothers—Senator Carl and Representative Sander—do with all that pro-Israel PAC money. Does their combined career total of nearly three-quarters of a million dollars mean that they are among the most vulnerable American legislators, and would not be re-elected without those contributions? Or are they just really popular guys?

 

Telling No Tales

Another odd couple seems to be Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-MO) and her late husband, Mel, who died in a plane crash shortly before the 2000 election. The current senator, who was elected in his stead, faces re-election after serving a special two-year term. To date she has raised $45,500, putting her in the hallowed ranks of the top 10. What’s curious is that, by June 30, her late husband had received $17,500 in contributions. What’s “curiouser,” as Alice in Wonderland would say, is that he received $5,000 in the ensuing three months. Between them, they have raised $68,000 for the current election cycle. It’s not quite up to the standards of the Levin brothers—but then, only one of the Carnahans is actually serving in Congress. Then again, perhaps the other has gone on to higher office.

Janet McMahon is managing editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs.

 

Top Ten Senate Recipients of Pro-Israel PAC Funds

Current Election Cycle

Johnson, Tim (D-SD) 86,165

Levin, Carl (D-MI) 84,529

Baucus, Max (D-MT) 84,100

Durbin, Richard (D-IL) 76,000

Cleland, Max (D-GA) 69,750

McConnell, Mitch (R-KY) 62,000

Carnahan, Jean (D-MO) 45,500

Harkin, Tom (D-IA) 44,750

Smith, Robert (R-NH) 40,430

Smith, Gordon (R-OR) 39,839

Career

Levin, Carl (D-MI) 649,387

Harkin, Tom (D-IA) 506,450

Daschle, Tom (D-SD) 463,135

Specter, Arlen (R-PA) 381,623

McConnell, Mitch (R-KY) 347,425

Durbin, Richard (D-IL) 321,671

Baucus, Max (D-MT) 316,348

Bingaman, Jeff (D-NM) 261,425

Robb, Charles (D-VA) 255,093

Reid, Harry (D-NV) 253,802

 

Top Ten House Recipients of Pro-Israel PAC Funds

Current Election Cycle

Davis, Artur (D-AL) 63,067

Berkley, Shelley (D-NV) 39,345

Cantor, Eric (R-VA) 29,280

Gephardt, Richard (D-MO) 23,415

Hastert, J. Dennis (R-IL) 22,000

Cardoza, Dennis (D-CA) 15,500

Pelosi, Nancy (D-CA) 15,000

Harman, Jane (D-CA) 14,500

Levin, Sander (D-MI) 13,500

Rothman, Steven (D-NJ) 13,500

Career

Gejdenson, Sam (D-CT) 335,601

Gephardt, Richard (D-MO) 158,295

Obey, David (D-WI) 149,100

Berkley, Shelley (D-NV) 139,755

Frost, Martin (D-TX) 131,364

Engel, Eliot (D-NY) 108,668

Levin, Sander (D-MI) 100,027

Lowey, Nita (D-NY) 88,088

Gilman, Benjamin (R-NY) 84,543

Evans, Lane (D-IL) 79,629

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