June/July 2002, pages 7, 10

Special Report

Ariel Sharon Brings His Bag of Tricks to George Bush’s White House

By Richard H. Curtiss

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and President George W. Bush seemed to be discussing two totally different subjects in their May 7 White House meeting—their fifth face-to-face encounter. Sharon only wanted to talk about what he described as “evidence” that Palestinian President Yasser Arafat was guilty of bad faith. Dismissing Sharon’s objections, Bush wanted to deal with where the world goes from here. In the lengthy and disputed record that followed the confusion was never dispelled.

The two leaders’ differences came to a head in April, when at least four major demands from Bush to stop the killing in the West Bank fell on deaf ears. Sharon continued with what he described as the unfinished business he insisted on “completing.”

As he proceeded with his bloody business, Sharon suddenly announced he would travel to Washington to meet with Bush. Sharon arrived in the nation’s capital carrying a vast number of documents, all of which he insisted should be read rather than talking about the future.

This time, however, it was Sharon’s old bag of tricks that seemed irrelevant. The documents were a crude mix of receipts and outright forgeries. In their fight against “terrorism,” Israeli troops occupying Arafat’s Ramallah headquarters and other Palestinian government buildings had removed computers and records. It is certainly not unreasonable to assume they had ample opportunity to create whatever documents they desired, and even put them on Palestinian stationery.

None of Sharon’s allegations were new. Unhappily, however, Bush still seems almost constitutionally incapable of making up his mind—and even when he does, it apparently can be changed depending on whoever last spoke to him. One need only cite the fact that each time Secretary of State Colin L. Powell sets off on an overseas trip to make progress in the Middle East, the backsliding begins back home in Washington. It seems unlikely that Powell will be leaving for more trips if he can possibly avoid them.

Sharon, meanwhile, continued to play his endless monologue during his interrupted U.S. visit, repeating the mantra that Yasser Arafat was an unfit negotiator.

Presumably Sharon was at least subconsciously listening to what Bush was trying to say. If history is a guide, however, Sharon will continue on his own course and look for America’s Israel lobby to pick up the pieces as it always has done before.

Describing his own plans to continue to try to solve the conflict, Bush said he planned to send Central Intelligence Agency Director George J. Tenet to return to the Middle East for security discussions. The U.S. president wants to work on building a new Palestinian security force on a different model than the one Israel had just destroyed.

It was clear that Bush and Sharon remained sharply divided on how to approach dealings with the Palestinians. Those differences were cast in sharp relief when the two leaders were asked whether the creation of a Palestinian state was the clear goal of the peace effort. Sharon said it was “premature” to discuss this. Responded the American president, however, “I still haven’t changed my position” on statehood.

Earlier in the day Bush had talked to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, and the following day Jordan’s King Abdullah II visited the White House. Bush told the three leaders, separately, that the U.S. is planning to continue its efforts toward a peace conference.

Fortunately there is a completely new set of papers on the table. This vision has been provided by Crown Prince Abdullah. The Saudi Arabian prince has skipped the tendentious and time-consuming negotiations, which could so easily be stalled, delayed or headed off entirely. He has offered the best solution for the entire Israeli-Palestinian problem, on a take-it-or-leave-it basis. It is the most generous offer ever presented by the Arab League and once again has cut right to the quick of what must be done.

It is almost as if Sharon realizes that all his delays, stratagems, and impediments can easily be abandoned if he accepts the Arab League offer. His real agenda, however, is to continue building up the settlements so as to make it impossible to turn back. In the meantime, Sharon will keep pursuing any opportunity to start a new Middle East war, which will enable him to push as many of the Palestinians out of the West Bank and Gaza as possible.

Sharon’s best hope was for a new crisis to further his agenda. That opportunity may already have presented itself with the newest bombings, which started May 7 in Rishon Letzion, near Tel Aviv and Haifa. If the suicide bombings continue they will give Sharon new excuses to delay serious peace negotiations.

While he waits for the opportune moment, Sharon might hope for a crisis in Iraq, a new problem in Syria, or even the possibility that Egypt will break off diplomatic relations with Israel. Meanwhile he is just stalling, stalling, stalling.

It may be that Bush finally will conclude that it is time for action. The first move in that case would be to cut off any additional aid to Israel. That is a threat that already has Israel worried. If you think the almost unbelievable political and propagandistic offensive Sharon has orchestrated over the past two months has set new records, you haven’t seen anything yet.

It would be nice if George Bush would suddenly say “enough is enough”—but, this time, really mean it, unlike all the other threats Sharon simply has brushed off. Unfortunately, however, this probably is not going to happen.

The Arab League Solution

The solution therefore rests with Crown Prince Abdullah’s initiative, backed up by the entire 22-member Arab League. Indeed, some Arab countries already have begun to take action on their own. Oman, for example, spontaneously has boycotted virtually everything American, and other such examples are under way. Young people throughout the Gulf are refusing to purchase U.S. products.

Other shots across the bow could include Arabs selecting contracts that could easily be awarded to European rather than American suppliers. At the same time it can be made clear that, if Saudi Arabia decides to close its U.S. air bases, Washington cannot hope to replace them in other Arab League countries such as Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain. In short, the West’s traditional divide-and-conquer tactics no longer will work.

That may do the trick. If not, however, the oil weapon may have to be utilized after all.

This will be an extremely dangerous and unpredictable way of solving the Arab-Israeli conflict, because an oil boycott may lead to completely unforeseen consequences. The first people hurt will be those living in Third World countries who have little economic margin for error. There also may be serious immediate consequences along the lines of the “oil embargo” that created such havoc and long gas lines throughout the U.S. in the 1970s.

An oil embargo, then, is a weapon of last resort, and one the Gulf states would prefer not to use. The only assurance is that everyone will suffer—the experts can decide later who suffered the most, oil consumers or oil producers.

The tragedy is that all of this is so completely unnecessary. After all the sound and fury that has gone on for months, or even years, the Arab-Israeli dispute eventually will be solved precisely according to the Arab League plan already agreed upon for the West Bank and Gaza Strip. With a push from George W. Bush now there can be a just solution. Only President Bush, unfortunately, can make the final decision.

Richard H. Curtiss is the executive editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs.

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