Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, December 2000, Pages 28, 78

Special Report

Baghdad’s Changing Face Not a Reflection of Reality for Majority of Iraqis

By Rick McDowell

The Baghdad Trade Fair, held in early November, had almost a carnival atmosphere, as tens of thousands of starry-eyed Iraqis meandered from exhibit to exhibit viewing 21st century technology. Shattering Iraq’s decade-long isolation, some 18,000 foreigners representing 1,600 companies from 45 countries, including France, Germany and Italy, flooded the streets of Baghdad, hoping to gain the inside track on a strategic emerging market.

Baghdad’s International Airport has become the destination for dozens of flights bearing such dignitaries as the Venezuelan president, Iranian and Russian foreign ministers and the Jordanian prime minister, all seeking closer diplomatic and economic ties with Iraq. Russia, Jordan and Dubai are planning to resume commercial flights to Baghdad, while, in a direct challenge to the U.S./U.K.-patrolled “no fly zones,” domestic flights have resumed to Basra in the south as well as to the northern city of Mosul.

Throughout the Middle East, American foreign policy is collapsing. Washington’s partisan role in the Middle East peace process has infuriated the Arab public. As a result, even U.S. allies in the region are beginning to challenge—or ignore—the world’s only remaining superpower, further eroding international support for sanctions against the regime of Saddam Hussain.

With Iraqi oil production levels at 2.3 million barrels a day, and expected to generate more than $10 billion in the current six-month phase of the “oil for food” program, the international community is knocking at Iraq’s door. The president of OPEC has joined France, Russia, China, Venezuela, Jordan, Turkey, Iran, Egypt and a chorus of nations in calling for an end to the U.N. embargo. After a 20-year hiatus, Syria has resumed diplomatic relations with Baghdad and reopened an oil pipeline, shut down since 1982, which has begun pumping 150,000 barrels a day—beyond the production levels permitted by the U.N. “oil for food” production levels.

The past months have seen a dramatic change in the face of Baghdad. Shops overflowing with new products—major appliances, TVs and designer clothes—inundate the city’s affluent neighborhoods. Newly constructed buildings, sidewalks and fountains adorn their streets, which teem with late-model Mercedes and BMWs.

Asked to explain this new affluence, Saad, who works by day in a bank and as a hotel manager by night, replied that nothing has changed for him, as he still struggles to feed his family. Remittances by expatriates (an estimated 2 to 3 million people), however, are beginning to be received by some of his neighbors, he added. Other Iraqis say that expanding oil sales have led to an increase in the availability of jobs. And the country’s porous borders with Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have exponentially expanded the black market—a proven windfall for a growing minority of Iraqis.

The further one travels from the center of Baghdad, however, the less likely one is to encounter people willing to allow themselves to hope, for little has changed for the majority of Iraqi civilians.

A recent report by the International Committee of the Red Cross stated: “The ‘oil for food’ program, introduced by U.N. Resolution 986 in 1995, has not halted the collapse of the health system and the deterioration of water supplies, which together pose one of the gravest threats to the health and well-being of the civilian population.

“The economy and, as a result, the infrastructure of the country lay in ruins,” the report continued. “The situation of the civilian population is increasingly desperate. Deteriorating living conditions, inflation, and low salaries make everyday lives a continuing struggle, while food shortages and the lack of medicines and clean drinking water threaten their very survival…added to this, in what has been called ‘the year’s other war,’ U.S. and British aircraft have continued to bomb targets in the north and south of the country.”

A Desperate Populace

UNICEF officials report that one in 10 children will not live to see the age of one, while one in five of those surviving will be chronically malnourished. In addition to the food basket, a family of five needs $200 per month to meet basic needs. The average income for Iraqis, however, including education and health care workers, is $3 to $5 per month. Only two of three children are attending school, and the drop-out rate has doubled.

A decade ago, Iraq had one of the most modern infrastructures and highest standards of living in the Middle East. Current estimates are that, following the lifting of sanctions, $30 billion will be needed to rebuild Iraq’s infrastructure and $10 billion annually to service its international debt.

At the end of the 1980s Iraq’s literacy rate was 95 percent, and 93 percent of the population had access to modern health facilities. As a result of the sanctions, investment in social services has plummeted to 10 to 15 percent of what it was prior to the Gulf war, causing the collapse of the country’s comprehensive welfare system. Some observers have wondered if one of the goals of sanctions was to eliminate the Iraqi socialist state and its standing in the Arab world.

Certainly the country’s deteriorating infrastructure, its isolation, and social problems including the increase of street children and abandoned and working children, prostitution, family breakup, brain drain, unemployment, and the stratification of wealth will ensure unrest for many years to come.

Some suggest that Iraq has found ways to live with sanctions, while others speculate that a comprehensive review of sanctions may follow May elections in Great Britain. Whatever the scenario, change is coming to Iraq, the sanctions regime and the entire region.

Whether the U.S. likes it or not, it also will be affected by the sanctions and their devastating effect on millions of ordinary Iraqis. Asked by an American about the lasting legacy of sanctions, an Iraqi teacher replied, “Your young people will have to deal with our young people.”

Rick McDowell has traveled to Iraq 11 times since August 1996. A member of Chicago-based Voices in the Wilderness, he has accompanied 12 delegations, including a delegation of Nobel Peace Laureates, and last visited Baghdad in November 2000.