Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, May 2000, pages 51-54

Northern California Chronicle

ANERA President Peter Gubser Discusses Middle East Issues at World Affairs Council in San Francisco

By Elaine Pasquini

“What Final Status for Middle East Peace Talks?” was discussed by Peter Gubser, president of American Near East Refugee Aid (ANERA), at the San Francisco World Affairs Council on Feb. 15. Following an introduction by former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Nicholas Thacher, Gubser first addressed the Syrian-Israeli peace negotiations.

Despite the recent violence in south Lebanon, he believes a peace treaty is possible fairly soon. “A peace treaty is in the interests of both sides,” Gubser said. “Their differences are actually fairly narrow.” With respect to the issue of the Syrian-Israeli border, he states the territory in question, “a few square kilometers,” is very small. “If you want to get to a peace treaty, the difference will not stand in your way,” he said. Gubser believes that Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad, 69, would like to sign a peace treaty with Israel soon in that he is in frail health and would “like to clean up some of the problem areas” before his death and a new leader, presumably his son, Bashar, takes over as president of Syria.

Although peace between Syria and Israel would probably be a cold peace, “a cold peace is much better than war,” he emphasized. Gubser reminded the audience that Israel’s border with Syria on the Golan Heights (Joulan in Arabic) has been the calmest of any border Israel shares with its neighbors. He perceives there will be an exchange of diplomats and embassies, but probably not a great economic exchange. Regarding the sharing of water, Gubser does not think Syria would divert water on the Golan Heights from flowing into the Sea of Galilee. Diversion is expensive and presently Syria obtains water from the Euphrates River, which flows from Turkey through Syria. Basically, Gubser believes a Syrian-Israeli peace treaty is “do-able,” because “their issues are so similar they can be resolved.”

On the other hand, the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations are more difficult and Gubser doubts the parties will reach any final status agreement this year. Among the problems remaining are settlements, borders, refugees, water, compensation, and the status of Jerusalem. As more than 200,000 Israeli settlers live on the Israeli-occupied West Bank in settlements with major 20th century infrastructure, “to disengage the settlements would be very difficult,” Gubser said. On the subject of borders of a future independent Palestine, he considers “a sovereign state of Palestine without borders” conceivable, but difficult to implement and doubts that sovereignty for the Palestinians will occur this year. Additionally, the emotional issue of Jerusalem “is too difficult to negotiate in the next few months.”

Answering a question about Arafat’s popularity among Palestinians, Gubser stated, “he [Arafat] put them on the map,” and he is popular for that reason. But Gubser acknowledged that many intellectuals and others are critical of Arafat’s government because they feel it is inept, corrupt and not a democracy. Many are disappointed that real democracy did not materialize. Addressing the rights of Palestinians dispossessed of their property, he said compensation was on the agenda, but it had not been determined whether compensation would go to the Palestinian Authority or to individuals.

Gubser explained that the purpose of ANERA, the non-political, non-sectarian organization that he has directed for the past 22 years, was to create jobs in order to reduce poverty, alleviate suffering and improve the lives of Palestinians, Lebanese and Jordanians. One successful program is the Gaza Women’s Loan Fund, which lends money to women to start new businesses or expand existing businesses. This program’s payback rate has been 100 percent for the last five years, Gubser said, adding, “Women pay back better than men!” In March Gubser attended an Information Technology Forum in Jordan. This project is aimed at creating high-quality jobs in the technology industry for young Jordanians. The project involves training students to design Web sites and write software programs. As money is needed to fund these projects, tax-deductible donations may be sent to ANERA, 1522 K Street NW, Suite 202, Washington, DC. The Web site is <www.anera.org>.

Great Decisions 2000 Program at Dominican College of San Rafael Hosts Speakers on Indonesia, Russia, Middle East

A Great Decisions 2000 program was offered at Dominican College of San Rafael Feb. 9 through March 29. The series of eight lectures was co-sponsored by the Marin Chapter of the World Affairs Council of Northern California and consisted of lectures and discussion groups that focused on current critical issues in foreign affairs. The topics were selected by the Foreign Policy Association, which publishes a book to accompany the lectures. Approximately 5,000 similar groups are held throughout the country and participants join in opinion polls on the issues conducted by the Foreign Policy Association. The results of the survey are forwarded to the White House, Congress and the media. Following are reports on Indonesia, Russia, and the Middle East:

Indonesia: Southeast Asia Role Model?

Dr. Franck F. Wiebe, chief economist and theme coordinator for the Asia Foundation, discussed past and current economic conditions in Indonesia on Feb. 23.

Wiebe described the series of events leading up to Indonesia’s financial crisis of 1997-1998, a crisis which ultimately contributed to the resignation of President Suharto on May 21, 1998 after weeks of anti-government protests and riots. According to Wiebe, in May 1997 global speculators assailed the Thai currency, which subsequently collapsed. The Philippine and Malaysian currencies quickly followed suit. On Aug. 14, 1997, Indonesia abandoned control of the rupiah which, within a month, plummeted from 2,500 rupiahs to one U.S. dollar to 3,000 rupiahs to the dollar. After the currency continued its fall to 17,000 rupiahs to the dollar, Indonesian officials asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance in October. Although actions of the IMF have been criticized by some economists, Wiebe defended the IMF’s role in abating Indonesia’s financial crisis. He blamed the Indonesian government for several mistakes which occurred in attempting to restore the country’s economic viability.

First, Wiebe said, the government, not the IMF, tripled fuel prices, causing riots in the capital. Next, the government, told by the IMF to “close bad banks,” made selective closures and only 16 banks were closed, while an additional 16 unstable banks with close ties to government officials remained open. Wiebe acknowledged, however, that certain mistakes also were made by the IMF, such as its failure to have any plan to deal with the panic which ensued after banks were closed. “They were dumbfounded,” he stated.

Wiebe is optimistic about Indonesia’s economic recovery, which is already in progress. According to Wiebe, Indonesia experienced a one-quarter of 1 percent economic growth in 1999 compared to a 13 percent decline in economic growth in 1998. He predicts an economic growth this year of possibly 2 percent, although “the banking sector remains in a coma.”

One aid to recovery was the Oct. 20, 1999 election of Indonesia’s fourth president, Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur). Since then the country has experienced political stability and the government is less repressive then it was a year ago.

Nevertheless, the government faces the problem of holding the large diverse country of 212 million together. East Timor became independent in 1999 and Aceh, Maluku, Sulawesi and Irian Jaya want independence. The workforce on Java, the most populated island where the capital Djakarta is located, is well-educated, but since Java has few natural resources and a large population, the government needs the revenues generated from the natural resources located in the less-populated province of Aceh. In short, “Indonesia has a problem keeping its restive provinces together,” Wiebe concluded.

Russia: Report Card on Survival

Dr. Romuald Fessenko, professor of economics at Asia Pacific International University, discussed current and past events in Russia on March 1.

Fessenko, prior to his defection in 1991, was a member of a team of senior analysts which helped former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in the process of transition to a democratic non-authoritarian political and economic system. He described how the former U.S.S.R., one-sixth of the world’s territory prior to its break-up, took on a physically unstable form after the events of 1991. Since then, according to Fessenko, the breakaway countries, Georgia, Uzbekistan, and the other 12 countries now comprising the Commonwealth of Independent States, have become “deeply dependent on Russia.” He said that “the U.S. wants to roll back Russia’s influence on these countries.”

He spoke of how Russia is “trying to turn back the economic clock,” since its so-called market economy is in shambles and not meeting the needs of the average Russian. “Russia’s flirtation with capitalism has reached a critical juncture,” he said, adding, “The only way out is a return to a form of centralized planning. It is the only viable action because of the crumbling economy.” However, he predicts this action would cause a crisis between Russia and the U.S.

With respect to the March 26 election, he believes one problem for the new president will be the issue of corruption, particularly among the oligarchs, or “elites,” as these powerful officials or ex-officials are known. “Since 199l $500 billion has fled for havens abroad,” Fessenko stated. In 1992 80 percent of joint ventures involved KGB officers as “they had a reputation for getting things done,” he said. However, Vladimir Putin, as a former KGB agent, has the information to fight this “internal mafia,” he said.

Fessenko believes the U.S. did not pressure Russia with respect to its violation of human rights and total destruction of Chechnya because “it is not in the interest of the U.S. to have a weak Russia.” Since Russia has a large nuclear arsenal, and “someone might press the button,” he believes the U.S. should have a “normal partner relationship” with Russia, despite the massacre of thousands of Chechens by the Russian army. And, in his opinion, a weak Russia could lead to a Russian-Chinese alliance, which would not be in the best interests of the U.S.

Middle East Realignments

“There are no experts on the Middle East,” quipped Dr. Dariush Zahedi, “only various degrees of ignorance.” Following that disclaimer, Zahedi, a visiting scholar at the University of California at Berkeley and West Coast director of the American Iranian Council, began his March 8 lecture discussing two main problems facing Saudi Arabia, holder of one-quarter of the world’s proven oil reserves and the largest oil exporter and producer.

Zahedi believes the country’s main problem is its enormous population growth, which has been increasing at an annual rate of 4.2 percent. The average Saudi family has seven children and 50 percent of the country’s population is below 15 years of age. The unemployment rate is 30 percent and the government, traditionally the country’s largest employer, is no longer capable of providing jobs for the 100,000 students who graduate from the university each year. Complicating this problem are the five million foreign workers. Many employers consider them more productive and willing to work for less pay, according to Zahedi. The second, longer-range problem Zahedi described was the matter of succession. Crown Prince Abdullah has assumed many of the responsibilities of his brother, King Fahd, who is in poor health. Both are in their mid-70s, and the other surviving sons of the late King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud, founder of modern Saudi Arabia, also are in their 60s and 70s. When the rule will pass from a son to a grandson of King Abdul Aziz is not clear. Zahedi does not foresee, however, any internal destabilization as long as the ruling family stays together and oil prices remain high, as the government “can buy its way out of difficulties” and forestall instability.

Turning to current events in Iran, he called it a “country in transition,” with 70 percent of the population of 68 million under age 30. The 55 percent under age 15 have no memory of life under the shah. These young people are “wary of the excesses of the revolution” and many are dissatisfied with the country’s current situation. The population has doubled since the 1979 revolution and the per capita GDP is only one-quarter of what it was prior to the revolution. Many are dissatisfied economically and politically and want more political freedom and less social intervention. Zahedi believes “the children of the revolution will devour this revolution” and this could result in a “great explosion.”

The opposition groups are disorganized and “bereft of any unifying leader or ideology,” said Zahedi. The situation now is basically the reformist group, followers of President Khatami, versus the hard-line conservatives, followers of Iran’s supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Many are encouraged, however, that the pace of reform may quicken, since 160 of the 290 parliamentary seats were won by reformers in the Feb. 18 election.

Zahedi believes Iraqi President Saddam Hussain “is more secure” today than 10 years ago, but the average person is “100 times worse off” now than then. Opposition forces are disorganized and lack cohesion. But Zahedi thinks Saddam has made his regime “coup-proof” and the “chances of a coup-d’état are minimal.”

Reviewing the Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations, Zahedi said, “Syria and Israel have few issues to resolve, whereas the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian problems are numerous.”

Ambassador Nicholas Thacher Discusses the Mideast in the New Millennium

Nicholas Thacher, retired career foreign service officer and U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 1973, addressed the World Affairs Council of San Francisco on March 7. His lecture, “Middle East Realignments: New Directions for the New Millennium,” was the fifth in the Great Decisions 2000 program offered at the Council this year.

Thacher described the situation in Iraq as “the most delicate and difficult problem we face anywhere in the world.” Deploring the suffering of the Iraqi people, he stated, “It is the super classic foreign policy dilemma.” However, he believes the U.S. should continue its naval presence in the area, as it is a major deterrent to Saddam Hussain using military force against his neighbors in the region or the minority Kurds in northern Iraq.

He also said the U.S. should support the opposition groups, specifically the Iraqi National Congress, because, among other reasons, “it makes Saddam quite nervous,” although the outlook for any opposition group to take power in Iraq “is not particularly favorable.”

He believes Iran, where he served as deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran from 1965 to 1970, is a “major player” in the Middle East. Since President Mohammad Khatami’s election in May of 1997, and the first round of the current election in which followers of Khatami’s reform policies won 160 of the 290 parliamentary seats, Thacher feels the U.S. should mitigate any barriers, as “it’s better to have engagements” than a hostile situation.

Reviewing the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, he believes Prime Minister Ehud Barak wants peace with the Palestinians and has the support of the majority of Israelis. With respect to Israel’s negotiations with Syria, Thacher speculated that the parties may be “experiencing normal bargaining obstinacy,” as “neither party wants to show his hand” and thus “the standoff continues.”

Thacher concluded his prepared remarks by discussing the many facets of modern Islam, which he characterized as “one of the world’s great religions, which provides guidance and comfort to more than one billion people in the world.” He theorized that one reason for the revival of Islam in the 20th century was the failure of Arab nationalism (as promoted by Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser in the 1950s) to take root and the lack of economic improvement in many Muslim countries. Regarding co-existence of democracy and Islam, he reminded the audience that Iran is currently grappling with this precise issue. He also mentioned the recent change in Egyptian law allowing women, for the first time, to file for divorce, which previously was only permitted for men.

Roots of Peace Campaign to Remove Landmines

“Transforming seeds of destruction into seeds of plenty” is the goal of the San Rafael-based Roots of Peace, according to executive director Heidi Kuhn. Speaking before an audience of 150 at the Marin Catholic Breakfast Club at St. Sebastian’s Church in Greenbrae on March 3, Kuhn elaborated on the purpose and accomplishments of the 2 1/2-year-old nonprofit fund of the Marin Community Foundation dedicated to eradicating landmines around the world. Kuhn, a fifth-generation resident of Marin County and energetic mother of four, described efforts made to raise money and support among the local community for the group’s humanitarian efforts. The group is working in partnership with the United Nations Association Adopt-A-Minefield project to demine a 164,000-square-foot parcel of land in Dragalic, Croatia. The ultimate purpose is not only to prevent death and injury, but also to return the land to economically viable agricultural use.

According to U.S. State Department estimates, 70 million landmines are located in at least 70 countries, including Cambodia, Angola, Bosnia, Kosovo, Korea, Afghanistan, Egypt, Jordan, Kenya, Iraq and Iran. In Croatia, a country the size of West Virginia, 14 out of 22 counties contain landmines which have injured more than 1,000 individuals.

Kuhn expressed her disappointment that the U.S. has not signed the 1997 Ottawa Treaty to Ban Landmines. The treaty banning the use, production, stockpiling and transfer of landmines, which became binding international law on March 1, 1999, has been signed by 137 countries and ratified by 92. Although her organization “stays out of politics,” Kuhn said, she noted that 47 American corporations produce parts for landmines, although Motorola has renounced further involvement in their production.

Kuhn has met with Queen Noor of Jordan in hopes of developing a project in the Middle East. For further information or donations contact Marin Community Foundation at (415) 464-2534 or e-mail This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Elaine Pasquini is a free-lance journalist based in Ignacio, California.

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