Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, January/February 2000, page 64

Islam in America

Dealing With the Impoverished Yet Imperialist Russia

By M.A. Muqtedar Khan

The Russian invasion of Chechnya continues unabated. The indiscriminate bombing of cities with no concern for civilian lives seems to have become a hallmark of Russian military tactics in Chechnya. While Grozny, the Chechen capital, is once again reduced to dust, over 200,000 Chechen women, children and the aged have chosen to face the Russian winter rather than the Russian army.

Remember, both Hitler and Napoleon and their grand armies were no match for the Russian winters. What hope can there be for the poor Chechen refugees? For nearly 200 years, the world has stood by and watched as the Russians have periodically invaded Chechnya to subdue, conquer, annex and assimilate these brave, freedom-loving people.

The Russo-Chechen Saga

The current episode in the long-running Russo-Chechen saga is supposedly Russia's tough response to growing Islamic militancy in Chechnya and neighboring Dagestan. Like many other countries, Russia, too, seems to have discovered that "battling Islamic extremism" permits all sorts of inhuman atrocities and generates very little international opposition.

In less than two weeks Russians killed over 4,000 civilians and generated a quarter-million refugees. Except for some meek squeaks from Washington and an initiative from the Canadians—they are pushing the Security Council to come up with some "words" to counter Russian bombs—the international community seems to be resigned to let Russia have its day in Chechnya.

For Russia, the inheritor state to the only other superpower, victory in Chechnya has become a symbol of Russian nationalism, Russian power and the resurgence of the Russian military. Russian forces and senior military officers are still smarting from the rout in the 1994-1996 war with the Chechen rebels. They badly want a victory to infuse the Russian army and the Russian people with some degree of national pride and confidence. The recent failure of Russia to have any impact on NATO when it bombed long-time ally Serbia has severely hurt national pride. This adventure in Chechnya, Russian leaders hope, may go a long way in restoring Russian self-confidence.

The West is making appropriate diplomatic noises but no serious steps have been taken. Is it possible that Western leaders think that if the cost of restoring Russian pride is a few thousand Chechen lives, then so be it? It is clear that Chechnya has no direct relevance to Western national interests. An ongoing genocidal conflict in Chechnya does not imminently threaten the stability of Europe. Nor do the refugees from this war threaten to clutter the glittering streets of Paris and Berlin. Clearly there are no pressing reasons for the West to take serious steps against Russia for "humanitarian reasons."

Why is the West seeking to reason with Russia?

No one expects NATO to bomb Russia in order to protect Chechnya. But the West can do a lot of economic arm-twisting if it so wishes. The Russian economy is in shambles, people's morale is low and its leaders have no ideas. Russia is supposed to pay between $13 billion and $19 billion to foreign lenders each year until 2008. The amount almost matches this year's budget revenues of about $20 billion. Russia was to pay $17.5 billion this year, but won't be able to pay more than $9 billion.

Even that amount depends on new funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Russia has missed scores of payments this year, but has tried to stay current on debts to the IMF and on Eurobonds issued after the 1991 Soviet collapse. Moscow's total debt is about $150 billion. Russia's vital economic statistics are far from promising. Gross domestic product is expected to shrink 2 percent this year; inflation is likely to rise to 50 percent; and the Central Bank's hard currency reserves are not expected to grow much from the paltry $11.5 billion at present, according to reports carried by the Interfax news agency.

Indeed Russia's debt will effectively mean that there may be no economic growth for a decade! Yet this new war! Russian military adventurism in spite of a deadbeat economy suggests a complete absence of reason in the corridors of power in Moscow. Why, then, is the West seeking to reason with Russia?

Nationalist Fervor

The repeated military engagements with Chechnya smack of a resurgent Russian imperialism. Russian imperialism and Russian nationalism have historically been inseparable. If Russian leaders think that invoking nationalist fervor is the way to combat the declining economy and international status of Russia, then they will increasingly indulge in more imperialist ventures in what they so pompously label "the near abroad"—the so-called Russian sphere of influence. I really pity the peoples who come within the Russian sphere of influence (Russians included). Nothing but defeat, poverty and pain befalls them.

What the West must do is try and tame Russia now! And not wait until its economy recovers and it once again becomes uncontrollable and challenges the West for global domination. This can be done by legally linking all kinds of economic aid and relations with Russia to its "international/domestic behavior."

Everything—loan guarantees, foreign aid, foreign direct investments, development aid—must be tied up through domestic laws of donor countries to Russia's human rights record. This would also tie the hands of foreign policy executives who often seek to measure humanitarian concerns through the lens of "national interests." This may also serve as a good model for future relations with rising powers with declining human rights standards like China and India.

M.A. Muqtedar Khan is a member of the faculty of international politics at Washington College, MD, and a doctoral fellow in international relations at Georgetown University. He is locally known as the "Mufti on the Internet" and is a director of the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy.