Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, November/December 1996, page 37

Talking Turkey

With Friends Like Qaddafi, Erbekan Doesn't Need Enemies

by James M. Dorsey

Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan marked in early October his first 100 days in office in much the same way that he has governed staunchly secular Turkey since coming to office last June: he issued a plethora of contradictory messages with no real change in his country's pro-Western, free-market policies.

Erbakan spent his 100th day as prime minister on an African tour of outcast states Libya and Nigeria that has turned into a foreign policy nightmare, with Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qaddafi using a joint news conference with his Turkish guest to demand the creation of an independent Kurdish state, partly on Turkish soil.

Turkey has been fighting a 12-year-old war against rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is demanding greater autonomy for the country's estimated 12 million Kurds. Some 21,000 people have died in the war so far.

Qaddafi is the second Islamic leader in as many months to dent seriously Erbakan's effort to strengthen relations with Muslim nations while at the same time maintaining Turkey's close ties to the West.

Earlier, Iraqi President Saddam Hussain foiled Erbakan's attempts to achieve security co-operation with Iraq, Syria and Iran, by intervening in internecine Kurdish fighting in allied-protected northern Iraq. The intervention sparked September's U.S. missile attacks on Iraq.

As a result, Erbakan faced as this magazine went to print a censure motion in parliament aimed at toppling his three-month- old coalition government. Opposition leaders said Erbakan's visit to Libya had severely damaged Turkey's international image and demonstrated that the prime minister's pro-Islamic Refah (Welfare) Party was incapable of governing the country.

"Our nation has not fallen into such humiliation in its foreign relations since it was founded,"the left-wing Republican People's Party (CHP) said in a written request to parliament for the no-confidence vote in the government.

The United States, which sharply rebuked Erbakan for visiting Libya, is likely to take a certain degree of pleasure from Qaddafi's turning of the tables on Erbakan.

Erbakan visited Libya on his second major trip abroad since coming to office in June. On his first trip, Erbakan concluded a $20 billion gas supply deal with Iran, only days after President Clinton signed a law severely restricting the energy dealings of both U.S. and non-U.S. companies with both Iran and Libya.

From Libya, Erbakan traveled to Nigeria at the very moment that Secretary of State Warren Christopher was touring Africa in a bid to achieve a consensus on tightening sanctions against that African nation for its abuse of human rights.

Erbakan actually has done little to loosen NATO member Turkey's ties to the West.

Despite these seemingly provocative moves, Erbakan actually has done little to loosen NATO member Turkey's ties to the West, and particularly to the United States. Since coming to office, he has helped persuade the Turkish parliament to extend the mandate of Operation Provide Comfort, the umbrella for the U.S.-led air operation based in southeastern Turkey to protect Iraqi Kurds against the wrath of Saddam Hussain. Also despite predictions to the contrary, Erbakan has maintained military cooperation between Turkey and Israel.

At the same time, Turkey is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) a resumption of support for economic reform and a stabilization program that would turn the country's ailing economy around. An IMF delegation scheduled a three-week visit to Ankara starting in mid-October, while the World Bank planned to send a team in November to discuss privatization.

Turkey is seeking to reach an accord with the IMF for a new stand-by arrangement which it hopes will increase confidence in international financial markets in the Turkish economy. State Minister Ufuk Soylemez says Turkey has to lower its current annual inflation rate of 80 percent, realize structural reforms, close budget deficits and provide stability in fiscal policies.

"For this reason, the government should reach an accord on a program to be implemented and this program should receive support from international financial institutions," Soylemez said.

Such a program would be a far cry from the populist policies Erbakan advocated before coming to power. If implemented, Erbakan would be succeeding where his secular predecessors have failed.

Erbakan's controversial foreign trips were in part designed to placate his followers, who had expected that once he came to office he would overhaul a seemingly decaying political system and displace an elite that seemed more concerned about its own welfare than that of the country.

A Bitter Disappointment

In fact, the Turkey of today looks very much as it did when Erbakan took power on June 28 and this has been a bitter disappointment to the many Refah voters attracted more by his promises to remake the social order than by his Islamist beliefs.

If Erbakan indeed goes for an IMF-approved economic program, his supporters may well find that things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. Erbakan has hinted that he may opt for an Argentinean turn-around model in which he would peg the Turkish lira to the dollar on a one-to-one basis, plunging the country first into deep crisis to allow it to come back sanitized and ready to compete.

Some analysts don't think Erbakan will have the time to carry out such a program. With his foreign policy in shambles, newspaper columnist Bilal Cetin quips: "Refah was not ready for power. It is acting as if it were still in opposition. I do not see another 100 days added to the life of his government."

Although talk of the government's demise may be premature, the fact is that the Qaddafi outburst during Erbakan's visit to Libya has brought his government to the lowest point of its tenure so far.