August/September 1992, Page 15, 92

Special Report

If Soviet Jews Have Stopped Coming, Does Israel Need Loan Guarantees?

By Frank Collins

One of the first priorities of Israel's new leaders will be to break the link between Israeli settlements and U.S. loan guarantees established by President George Bush, and replace it in American public opinion with a link between the loan guarantees and immigration to Israel from the former Soviet Union. This will be difficult if Bush resists because of a significant change since the loan guarantee battle was joined.

The flow of Jewish immigrants has not merely slowed. It may actually have reversed, with more Jews leaving than those entering Israel.

According to Israeli government figures, between later 1989 and mid-1992 roughly 360,000 Jews had immigrated into Israel from the former Soviet Union. The rate of immigration began dropping dramatically in mid-1991, however. By May 1992, it had dropped below 4,000 immigrants per month, a figure that may actually be offset by the quiet emigration of Israelis to the U.S., which has continued for many years, and the return to Russia and other formerly communist countries of new immigrants disappointed with what they have found in Israel.

Right of Return to Russia

There is a serious problem with respect to the retention of the immigrants who are already in Israel. Now that Russian Jews among them are being issued Russian passports at the Russian Embassy in Tel Aviv, they are free to return to Russia or to go to any other country that will admit them. Other countries of the former Soviet bloc are codifying similar new passport regulations that are expected to make possible the reverse immigration of their nationals now in Israel.

The decreased likelihood of large numbers of immigrants arriving in Israel in the next five years throws into question the amount of money that Israel needs to fund the absorption process. Israelis and their American supporters defend their request for $10 billion in U.S. loan guarantees over the next five years, over and above Israel's normal aid of $4 billion to $5 billion per year, saying that large sums still are required to provide jobs and to expand the Israeli economy so that Russian and other East Bloc Jews will resume emigration to Israel.

Quite aside from the fact that such federal loan guarantees are sorely needed for American cities and states, the logic and morality of the Israeli argument is open to serious question. Why should the United States obligate itself to the expensive jump-starting of the flagging Israeli economy in order to entice Jews from the former Soviet Union to emigrate to Israel?

The immigration rates of Russians and citizens of the other ex-Soviet countries over the next several years will depend, to some extent, on the hardships involved in conversation of the economies of those countries to free enterprise, and the rate of improvement of those economies after conversion. Future immigration rates also depend upon conditions in Israel. Only when they are considerably better than those of any given ex-Soviet country will citizens of that country be willing to give up homes, friends, language, culture and jobs. Nor will improving economic conditions in Israel increase immigration if conditions in the ex-Soviet country of the prospective immigrant improve at the same or a greater rate.

The significance of these facts is illustrated by the preferences displayed by Soviet Jews for emigration to the United States when the Soviet Union, under American pressure, first began to allow the large-scale emigration of Jews in 1988. At that time, Jews were leaving the Soviet Union with Israeli immigration visas and laissez passers but not regular passports.

Although most countries would not admit them without passports, many were able to "drop out" in Europe en route to Israel and go to the U.S. as political refugees instead.

From figures published by the Congressional Research Service, 88.6 percent of these Jews who left the former U.S.S.R. for Israel dropped out in Europe in 1988 and 87.3 percent in most of 1989. The drop outs declined only when the U.S., under Israeli pressure, agreed to refuse to admit Soviet Jews who had visas for immigration to Israel.

A major blow to the emigration to Israel took place on July 1, 1991, when a new law went into effect which granted the right of every Soviet citizen to a passport. Soviet citizens, including Jews, with passports now were free to emigrate to any country in the world that would admit them. The arrivals of Soviet Jews in Tel Aviv immediately fell from 20,000 in June to 10,000 in July 1991. The arrivals remained around that number for the rest of 1991, but had declined still further to 3,500 in June 1992.

Immigration into Israel from western Russia and the former Soviet states in Europe has virtually ceased. The current limited immigration is from outlying regions of Russia and the states in central Asia, where Jews are very limited in numbers.

When the new Soviet immigration law was passed in 1991, hundreds of Soviet Jews besieged the Soviet embassy in Tel Aviv seeking the passports that would enable them to return to the Soviet Union. They found that passports were being issued on a delayed and a selective basis.

Russian President Boris Yelstin clarified the situation on Feb. 6 when he announced that any Russian Jew who had emigrated to Israel on an Israeli visa would be eligible for restoration of Russian citizenship and to return to Russia. This policy was ratified by the Russian parliament in May.

Figures on reverse emigration to Russia are not yet available, but the Russian embassy in Washington says that Russian passports now are being freely issued in Tel Aviv. The number of those returning will very likely be large in view of the unemployment, said to have exceeded 40 percent, among recent Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union.

Even among those lucky enough to have found employment in Israel, many are working at jobs singularly inappropriate to their education and training. Scientists have been pictured in Israeli newspapers collecting garbage in Tel Aviv. These and others in inappropriate jobs, as well as the tens of thousands of unemployed, may well join those returning to their former homeland in an exodus of almost Biblical proportions from the "promised land."

Frank Collins is a free-lance journalist specializing in the Middle East.

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