August/September 1992, Page 25

Speaking Out

U.S. Euphoria Over Rabin's Victory Can Be Dangerous to Peace

By Paul Findley

The enthusiasm in the halls of the U.S. executive branch that greeted the electoral triumph of Yitzhak Rabin suggests a dangerous euphoria that may threaten President George Bush's chances for re-election.

The danger lies in Bush's understandable zeal to win Jewish votes in his bid for a second term. He hinted strongly at this zeal in a handwritten message to Abe Foxman, director of the pro-Israel Anti-Defamation League, dispatched several days before the June 23 election in Israel.

The president's message was prompted by an article written by Foxman that rebutted charges by Israeli officials that Bush is an anti-Semite. The charges had come from two members of Shamir's official family, one of them Benyamin Netanyahu, the deputy foreign minister. They cited as evidence Bush's refusal to support the loan guarantees.

Bush responded to Foxman's rebuttal:

"Dear Abe, I saw the attached article and I want to commend you and thank you. We are not adversaries of Israel. You are right. I saw the Olmert and Netanyahu personal attacks but I will not respond. After the June elections, whoever wins, I'll make a renewed effort to set things right."

The wording of his note to Foxman is, fortunately, vague, hardly a commitment to the $10 billion loan guarantee demanded by Israel-or to anything else. But the implication is powerful and believable.

I fear that Bush may believe that his role in bringing down the Shamir regime will win him the election-day gratitude of American Jews. The hosannas now being sung in his praise by Jewish leaders could lead him to that conclusion.

Based on my study of Charles H. Percy's bid for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 1984, and the experience of others who have tried to placate Israel's lobby, I am absolutely convinced that Bush will win Jewish votes next November only if he is perceived on election eve as a sure winner.

Percy went out of his way in 1984 in trying to placate Jewish voters. As in previous years, he continued to support economic and military legislation to assist Israel and, as Foreign Relations Committee chairman, even offered successful amendments to increase that aid. He missed few opportunities to present himself as a supporter of Israel.

That was not enough because, in the eyes of Israel's supporters, Percy had sinned grievously. He had defied Israel's wishes by voting for military sales to Saudi Arabia on two occasions. He had identified PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat as a moderate.

In short, Israel's lobby demands 100 percent support, and Percy did not meet that standard. The lobby quietly and effectively supported Democratic Representative Paul Simon's campaign for Percy's senatorial seat. According to an insider, the lobby invested most of its financial resources that year in helping to defeat Percy.

Israel's lobby demands 100 percent support.

Bush has hardly jumped through the hoop for Israel's lobby. He certainly has been less compliant as president than was Percy as senator.

Over lobby protests, Bush:

• Insisted on initiating the peace process, bringing Israeli negotiators to the same table with Palestinians.

• Vetoed all Israeli military adventurism during the Gulf war.

• Declared that East Jerusalem is occupied territory and not a part of Israel.

• Publicly criticized Israel's lobbying on Capitol Hill-the first time a president has done so.

While Israel's lobby and most American Jews are grateful for his role in the June 23 defeat of Yitzhak Shamir, Bush would be naive to count on their votes next November. The lobby simply does not operate that way. Given a realistic choice, American Jewish supporters of Israel will vote for a candidate like Clinton, who can be counted on to support Israel without question or qualification, if they see him seriously challenging Bush's re-election. In Israeli eyes, Bush is not sufficiently compliant.

Still, George Bush has not concealed his joy at Rabin's electoral victory. He is said by U.S. Jewish leaders to have signaled to them that good relations with Israel will be restored. Pro-Israel Washington observers are convinced that before the U.S. elections in November, Israel will receive some U.S. guarantees on loans to help finance costs of Jewish immigration from the former Soviet republics.

Syndicated columnists Rowland Evans and Robert Novak believe Bush played a critical role in the Israeli elections: "The president's strategy in blocking the $10 billion in loan guarantees cast Shamir in the role of a villain recklessly willing to risk Israel's single biggest asset, the American connection. That served the purpose of American Jewish leaders in cutting down Shamir."

Evans and Novak also believe the Bush administration arranged the showdown over loan guarantees that began last fall partly as a strategy to help bring down the Shamir regime. They are correct that Israel sees the U.S. connection as its greatest single asset.

Because of that perception-indeed reality-I have long contended that no Israeli leader can defy a clear ultimatum from an American president and survive politically. Shamir defied a president and lost.

Expanded Aid to Israel?

Israeli newspapers have reported that the Bush administration is now planning an expanded aid program for Israel. Whether this is just campaign window-dressing is unclear.

What is clear is the price Bush will pay if he tries to placate Israel at this juncture. That step would seriously weaken his prospects for re-election.

Bush should reflect on the events of last September. With a single brief news conference he stopped the loan guarantees and Israel's lobby dead in their tracks and won near-unanimous support from the American people. If he compromises in exchange for Rabin's vague promise to stop construction of all "political" settlements in the occupied territories, authorizing legislation for loan guarantees will sweep through Congress.

In all likelihood, this strategy would do little to halt settlement construction. The behavior of settlement activists will be difficult for Rabin to control, even if he wants to do so. Nor would the strategy be apt to yield even a single vote for Bush in the November elections.

If, on the other hand, Bush sticks with the position he adopted last fall-opposing all loan guarantees until Israel stops all settlement construction-and takes his case forcefully to the American people, he can be sure of renewed cooperation in Congress and strong support by the American electorate.

Paul Findley, a member of the House of Representatives from Illinois for 22 years, is the author of the best-selling They Dare to Speak Out: People and Institutions Confront Israel's U.S. Lobby. He is founder and chairman of the Council for the National Interest in Washington, DC.

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