September 1989, Page 43

Energy Notebook

Offsetting Greenhouse Effect Will Increase Natural Gas Production in Mideast

By James Akins

The "greenhouse effect" has been postulated-but widely ignored-for almost 100 years. In the last decade, scientists have conducted serious studies of the matter and have made fairly explicit prognostications about the effects on the world's climate of increased amounts of carbon dioxide and chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere. They were not taken seriously until gaps in the ozone layer above Antarctica were discovered three years ago. There is no question that these are caused by increased worldwide use of CFC's. Furthermore, there is today almost no dissent in the scientific community about global warming trends caused by increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and the CFCs.

Well over half the warming effect is caused by carbon dioxide; another 15 percent by the CFCs. Although the CFCs are a relatively small portion of the total pollutants, molecule for molecule they are 10,000 times more effective at trapping atmospheric heat than is carbon dioxide. The international agreement to phase out the use of CFCs has been ratified by only the United States and Mexico. Given the urgency, ratification by other industrialized countries is expected soon. The question is: how quickly can CFCs be replaced? Dupont said it no longer questions the role of CFCs in the ozone depletion; it therefore will stop production in the year 2000. Scientists generally believe there should be much more rapid banning or reduction of CFCs.

The increasing level of atmospheric carbon dioxide is a more serious and apparently more intractable problem. With the rapidly increasing population of the earth and the rising standard of living, consumption of hydrocarbons and coal will certainly increase, regardless of the actions taken or proposed by governments. Only a few scientists believe it is realistic to stop the growth of carbon dioxide productions; even fewer think that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels can be decreased-as much as such goals might be desirable. But all agree the rate of growth in carbon dioxide must-as a first stage-be decreased. Even this will be difficult.

Of the commonly used fuels, natural gas-methane-which has a higher ratio of hydrogen to carbon than other fuels, is by far the least polluting. This is illustrated by the following table. It shows the number of kilograms of carbon released into the atmosphere (in the form of carbon dioxide) by the burning of fuel required to produce 1 million British Thermal Units (BTUs):

Methane--> 14.2

Gasoline--> 14.9

Diesel Oil--> 20.7

No. 6 Heating Oil--> 21.0

Residual Fuel Oil--> 23.0

Coal-Bituminous--> 27-35

Syncrude from coal--> 39.0

Syngas from coal--> 42.3

Unfortunately, much of the world's natural gas is located far from the main areas of consumption. The gas liquification process results in a loss of about 10 percent of the fuel. Transportation to market uses another 5 percent. But the use of liquified natural gas (LNG) for electricity generation would result in the release of only half as much carbon dioxide as would come from fuel oils and only a third as much as would come from coal.

For the balance of the century, increased use of natural gas is imperative. Methane has long been viewed as a premium "nonpolluting" fuel. Indeed, none of the traditional pollutants is associated with methane. Until recently, carbon dioxide was thought to be as benign as water. This is no longer the case. But, as noted above, carbon dioxide released in the generation of electricity with methane as the primary fuel is far lower than that using other traditional fuels.

Because methane is a highly desired-indeed, indispensable-fuel, prices will rise almost certainly to a level considerably higher in terms of energy content than that of competing fuel oils. Much sooner than has heretofore been predicted, the world will need the gas reserves of North Africa (Algeria and Libya) and most particularly those of the Persian Gulf: Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. This gas can either be liquified or sent to market by pipeline. The latter route may seem more sensible for the Persian Gulf, provided agreements on transit fees can be reached with Turkey, Bulgaria, Greece, and Yugoslavia.

Planning for the development of these resources should start soon. Lead times are long; work should not be delayed until increased methane use becomes imperative.

James E. Akins, former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia and former director of the State Department's Office of Fuels and Energy, is a Washington, DC-based international consultant on world energy affairs.